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The U.S. Treasury has been grappling with significant debt levels, issuing $11 trillion over the past four years, a stark comparison to the 220 years it took to accumulate the first $11 trillion. In 2024 alone, Treasury bond issuance is expected to reach $1.9 trillion, surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Concurrently, interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to hit $1.7 trillion by April 2025. The total U.S. government debt has escalated from $27.7 trillion in January 2021 to $34.6 trillion currently. Amid these developments, the Treasury announced an increase in marketable borrowing estimates for Q2 2024 to $243 billion and for Q3 to $847 billion, reflecting the ongoing fiscal challenges. This has influenced the financial markets, with the dollar climbing and stocks trimming gains. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to curb the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT), and the Treasury's cash level is projected at $850 billion for Q3.
US Treasury To Borrow $243B More This Spring: Dollar Climbs, Stocks Trim Gains Treasury revises Q2 borrowing up by $41 billion due to lower receipts. Higher U.S. Treasury borrowing signals mounting fiscal challenges, stirs markets. https://t.co/MSI7uEa96H
Treasury Publishes Borrowing Estimates For Q3 Which Sneak Below The Median Estimate https://t.co/SuEg2TDsv1
The dive came when the Treasury department released its marketable borrowing estimates and they were very high, $41 billion higher than announced in January of 2024 because of lower cash receipts. Bad
TSY projected Q3 cash level estimated at $850BN vs $750BN streetwide estimate. This means that actual Q3 funding needs (assuming $750BN in cash) is just $747BN, below the median estimate https://t.co/RQk8WmmPOl
TREASURY ANNOUNCES MARKETABLE BORROWING ESTIMATES https://t.co/1xn7jKuasS
Market lower as Treasury boosts April-June borrowing estimates to $243 billion from $202 billion - Q3 $847 billion, when the Fed likely slows QT https://t.co/aUOEzCXuOh
The Treasury borrowing estimates do not model tapering QT, which will likely start as soon as this week. With taper, near-term funding needs are even lower.
TSY funding needs: Q2 $243BN Q3 $847BN: so much for $1.2 trillion
Here's What The Treasury Will Announce In Its Borrowing Estimate At 3pm Today https://t.co/vayAc66rTt
If $1.2 Trillion is really the whisper estimate for TSY Q3 borrowing needs, then boy are yields going to collapse today...
NEW: Interest payments on 🇺🇸 US debt are expected to reach $1.7 TRILLION by next year if rates remain stable 😮 https://t.co/ZverH7fR4Z
🇺🇸 US Government Debt January, 2021: $27.7 trillion Now: $34.6 trillion
Rates Will Come Down after Election $8.9 TRILLION of US Federal debt will mature over next 12 months. That debt will need to be refinanced at much higher rates or USA will bust. By 2034, US debt is expected to cross above a staggering $50 trillion.
🇺🇸 UFF: Interest payments on US debt will reach $1.7 trillion as early as April 2025. https://t.co/gFvPGKO24o
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp inside last week's ranges, which included YTD highs (2Y 5.025%, 10Y 4.735%). Ahead this week: May-July auction sizes Weds, with no changes to nominals & buyback program start date expected. Also, some predict FOMC will curb QT pace Weds.
This is shocking: Treasury bond issuance in 2024 is expected to hit $1.9 TRILLION Surpassing levels seen even during the 2008 financial crisis https://t.co/qYmh6cOEpO
How bad has the US debt crisis become? The US government has issued a whopping $11 TRILLION of debt over the last 4 years. By comparison, it took the US 220 years to add the first $11 trillion of Federal debt. Within the next 2 months, total US debt is on track to cross above… https://t.co/ntFOdZJ1Hk