The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) experienced a volatile trading period with multiple attempts to breach the 4900 level, facing rejections and a significant pullback. Traders have been closely monitoring resistance levels at $4904, $4931, $4950, and $5000, and support levels, with the all-time high (ATH) marked at 4906.69 and a notable gap at 4842.07. Nvidia Corporation ($NVDA) and Super Micro Computer, Inc. ($SMCI) also saw their share prices fluctuate, with NVDA reaching ATHs at $633-635 and SMCI at $496.78. The market showed signs of hedging as the $SPX skew increased, and options traders took positions anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expected move of 0.5%, with significant put volume at the 4850 level. Despite the pullback, the $SPX has been up three months in a row by over 15% as of January 2024, with historical data suggesting this trend is usually the start of an uptrend rather than a peak, though interim corrections are possible.
$SPX and major indices returns as of January 2024 https://t.co/N6CNkKgFzU
$SPX up 3 months in a row by >15%. Since 1980, 9 other instances. None was a top, all mostly were the initiation of an uptrend, but a few 3-7% corrections in the interim (circles) https://t.co/17d7SRFIsI
$SPX put volume is growing at 4850, a level we recently tested and bounce off of https://t.co/hboq2Gwv0n
$ES_F bouncing right off of the most active $SPX put strike You've got to love the SPX Options Visualizer β€οΈβπ₯ https://t.co/gwn79zyzxE
$SPX finally pulling back big!! https://t.co/PGykpISdi6
Reminder $spx https://t.co/fqLY6fCMAW
$SPX options volume visualized π Lots of interest at 4900 https://t.co/wMHfCvebIb
$spx fall https://t.co/s1XV2L4b3v
$SPX options are pricing about a 0.5% expected move for the #FOMC. You can see those levels currently, about 4850 to the downside and 4905 to the upside. IV is likely to continue to pick up into the announcement to counteract the regular theta of a typical day, holding that⦠https://t.co/HvuaICoSAy
$SPX That weekly candlestick though⦠https://t.co/JnGK4Tqqvj
$SPX They are buying the intraday dip again... https://t.co/5Wold6XAjY
$SPX Looks like the bulls are stepping back in the arena againβ https://t.co/WOsCZwGSHX
Following a little bit of intraday pressure, an $SPX credit put spread at the bearish side of today's expected move would be selling the 4910 strike, for those that like to leg into condors (about 4/1 risk/reward currently). Would need the SPX to bounce soon to then put on the⦠https://t.co/ETVyhtDxVa
$spx 4920c .20 to 3.75 wow https://t.co/4jzACIcLyZ
After a second run up to 4900 you can see the effect of theta/time on this pullback which puts $SPX a few points above the last check-in but this time with more mark to market gains. The expected move still puts the short strike (4905) at risk if a 3rd attempt above 4900β¦ https://t.co/Di5zXly1E1 https://t.co/8nBSp0ayUy
This is a relatively well-hedged market, as $SPX skew has risen significantly over the last few weeks https://t.co/oiKokEk0Be
A quick check-in with the $SPX which isn't too different than when the trade was entered, but that's after a brief run to just above $4900 and what is for now a brief "rejection". With the trade example about halfway through its shelf life it is mark-to-market profitable. If SPX⦠https://t.co/vtd2gvtJkW https://t.co/SOeiMjJm25
Good morning $SPX π$4898, $4904, $4906.69(ATH), $4931, $4950, $5000 π$4881, $4865, $4850, $4844-4842.07(Gap), $4818 $NVDA π$618, $628.5, $633-635, $650, $666 π$603, $599, $595, $590, $585.75 $SMCI π$486, $496.78(ATHs), $500, $515, $525, $550 π$466, $457, $436, $428, $423