The S&P 500 approaching 5,000 has drawn comparisons to the Internet-fueled rally in 1998. Evercore's Emanuel suggests 1-yr forward returns for stocks of 0% regardless of a recession. Historically, hitting big milestones like this tends to lead to better than average returns in the following six months, with the market not being significantly slowed down by these milestones. Observers compare the current situation to when the Dow crossed 5,000 in the mid-1990s, suggesting that hitting 5,000 may not signal the end of the party for the S&P.
When the Dow crossed 5,000 in the mid-1990s, many observers already thought the party might be over. It wasn’t. What does that portend for S&P 5,000? @JonathanJLevin asks https://t.co/MVtMGWKCZQ
“When you hit these milestones... 6 months later the S&P’s never been lower. Up 8% on average,” says @RyanDetrick on the S&P 500 briefly hitting 5,000. “These milestones tend to do very little to slow the market down simply by themselves.” https://t.co/MrHNpua4w7
S&P 500 5k will have to wait at least another day. What happens after these big milestones are hit? Small sample size yes, but going out six months tend to see better than average returns. Probably because new highs tend to be bullish. https://t.co/uafuNszSmt
S&P 500 5k will have to wait at least another day. What happens after these big milestones are hit? Small sample size yes, but going out six months tends to see better than average returns. Probably because new highs tend to be bullish. https://t.co/srGsBh3zbO
The momentum that has carried the S&P to 5,000 “has few equals in history,” the standout being the Internet-fueled rally off a similar mkt bottom in Oct. 1998: Evercore’s Emanuel. He sees a host of issues suggesting 1-yr forward returns for stocks of 0% regardless of recession.