Following the release of hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, financial markets have significantly adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024. Initially, Wall Street anticipated up to 6-7 cuts throughout the year, but the consensus has now shifted to foreseeing only 1-2 cuts. The probability of a rate cut by June plummeted from nearly 60% to less than 25% after the March CPI report, with the first cut not fully priced in until September and July's odds at 50-50. This shift in expectations also impacted the European Central Bank (ECB), with traders paring back rate-cut bets to less than 75 basis points from around 100 bps, and the Bank of England (BoE), where rate-cut bets were pared to less than 50bps. Major financial institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America now predict a single rate cut in December, totaling 75 basis points, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts. This recalibration reflects growing concerns over rebounding inflation and its potential to influence global monetary policy more conservatively than previously expected.
JUST IN : BANK OF AMERICA NOW EXPECTS ONLY 1 RATE CUT FROM THE FED THIS YEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR WALL STREET EXPECTED 6 RATE CUTS IN 2024
Bank of America now sees Jerome Powell and the 🇺🇸 Fed cutting rates 1 time in 2024 with a December cut
In case you didn't hear yet, inflation numbers came in higher than expected. That means hopes for a June interest rate cut are looking less likely. Markets now expect only 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in September. https://t.co/CfgrmCLSBw
⚠️ ANALYSIS-TRADERS BET THE ECB WILL CHART ITS OWN RATE CUT PATH Full Story → https://t.co/L0H5DkDQNr Traders' bets on multiple ECB interest rate cuts this year have barely been shaken by hot U.S. inflation that slashed Federal Reserve easing expectations this week,…
❖ BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES ONE RATE CUT FROM FEDERAL RESERVE IN 2024, STARTING IN DECEMBER
BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH SEES ONE RATE CUT FROM FEDERAL RESERVE IN 2024, STARTING IN DECEMBER
BofA now sees just one rate cut this year--in December. Pushes terminal rate for 2026 up 50bps to 3.5-3.75% https://t.co/auqz0yXsOF
🚨JUST IN: DEUTSCHE BANK PREDICTS ONLY ONE DECEMBER INTEREST RATE CUT FROM THE FED THIS YEAR
DB now expects just one rate cut, in December, after the elections.
🔴 DEUTSCHE BANK EXPECTS ONLY ONE INTEREST RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM THE US FEDERAL RESERVE.
DEUTSCHE BANK EXPECTS ONLY ONE INTEREST RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE
❖ RBC EXPECTS ONLY ONE 25BPS INTEREST RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE VS 75BPS OF CUTS EXPECTED EARLIER
🔴 RBC EXPECTS ONLY ONE 25 BPS INTEREST RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM THE US FEDERAL RESERVE VS 75 BPS OF CUTS EXPECTED EARLIER.
TRADERS HOLD ECB RATE BETS STEADY; PRICE 19BPS OF CUTS BY JUNE
🔴 STANDARD CHARTERED EXPECTS THE FED TO CUT INTEREST RATES TWICE THIS YEAR BY 25BPS EACH VS FOUR TIMES EXPECTED EARLIER.
STANDARD CHARTERED EXPECTS U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO START CUTTING INTEREST RATES IN Q3 2024 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF Q2
❖ WELLS FARGO EXPECTS U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS IN SEPTEMBER FOLLOWED BY 25 BPS RATE CUTS AT EVERY OTHER FOMC MEETING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT YEAR
🔴 WELLS FARGO EXPECTS U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS IN SEPTEMBER FOLLOWED BY 25 BPS RATE CUTS AT EVERY OTHER FOMC MEETING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT YEAR.
❖ WELLS FARGO EXPECTS FED TO START CUTTING RATES IN SEPT VS PRIOR FORECAST OF JUNE
🔴 BNP PARIBAS EXPECTS THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES TWICE THIS YEAR VS THRICE EXPECTED EARLIER.
Fewer and Later: Yesterday's hotter-than-expected US #inflation numbers led #markets to revise their expectations for rate cuts by the #FederalReserve. The implied probability of a rate cut in June dropped from around 50% to 15%, and in July, from nearly 100% to 50%.…
TRADERS PARE ECB RATE-CUT BETS TO LESS THAN 75BPS THIS YEAR
🔴 MONEY MARKETS PRICE IN 75 BASIS POINTS OF RATE CUTS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK THIS YEAR, FROM AROUND 100 BPS IN MID-MARCH.
MONEY MARKETS PRICE IN 75 BASIS POINTS OF RATE CUTS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK THIS YEAR, FROM AROUND 100 BPS IN MID-MARCH
🇬🇧TRADERS PARE BOE RATE-CUT BETS TO LESS THAN 50BPS THIS YEAR
UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT EXPECTS U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE TO START CUTTING INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER VS PRIOR FORECAST OF JUNE
⚠️ ANALYSIS-UNRAVELING US RATE CUT BETS SPUR INVESTOR PORTFOLIO SHIFTS Full Story → https://t.co/6KLRZAkZXa Fears of rebounding inflation are forcing investors to prepare for a scenario few expected to confront in 2024: a year without U.S. interest rate cuts. https://t.co/VF1q7hLabM
The June 2024 Fed rate cut probability has fallen from over 50% recently to only 18% as of today....arguably it should be 0% https://t.co/DttXrBvVDQ
You can't make this up: Interest rate futures are now pricing in a 13% chance of ZERO rate cuts this year. The base case shows just 2 rate cuts by December with a 57% chance that rates are unchanged THROUGH JULY. Just 4 months ago, markets were pricing-in 6 to 8 rate cuts in… https://t.co/9LD3jj2vCj
Barclays reduces Fed rate cut view to one in 2024 https://t.co/7U4l1tFobB https://t.co/tyJg7zJy03
Incredible shift: Wall Street has taken a June rate cut off the table. A week ago the market was pricing in a 60% chance the Fed would cut rates in June. Now it's a 16.5% chance. https://t.co/5gGT30FwFo
BARCLAYS SEES FED CUTTING RATES JUST ONCE IN 2024 AFTER CPI DATA; EXPECTS RATES AT 4.00%-4.25% BY END-2025
Probability of June rate cut is down to 17% It was 57% yesterday https://t.co/NZMc8DbamP
BTIG: Hotter-than-expected inflation slashes June rate cut odds https://t.co/gGZBZuUKcA https://t.co/CnVSWJmUds
Traders pare ECB cut bets after US CPI with all eyes on Lagarde https://t.co/Lofy1Q5hUE via @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/6ZgqCFwAjo
Traders trim their bets on ECB interest-rate cuts after US inflation tops forecasts https://t.co/kOAogudAri
fallout from the hot CPI print: Expectations for a rate cut by June fell from ~57% chance yesterday to about 19% chance today. https://t.co/CkYvtB8oFv
BREAKING: Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024. This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March. Odds of a… https://t.co/349Px6HvZ2
Traders are now pricing in an 18% chance of a June Fed rate cut and fewer than two cuts this year, from a 53% chance of a June move yesterday. https://t.co/rWYCBQEl1B
Market-based probability of Fed rate cut in June now almost completely gone following U.S. inflation data. July only 50-50, and first rate cut now only fully priced by September.
June rate cut odds https://t.co/HvHt7GeC5w
Yesterday Fed funds futures put the changes of a June rate cut at nearly 60%. Today after the CPI, less than 25%. https://t.co/3wrexi6D9W
🔴 TRADERS OF SHORT-TERM US INTEREST-RATE FUTURES BET THE FED WILL CUT RATES JUST TWICE THIS YEAR.
Traders now see rates remaining above 4% through the end of 2025. One, maybe two, cuts are now priced in for this year; Wall Street came into the year betting on 6 or 7 https://t.co/5btMq32Ivz
*MARKETS NOW PRICING IN JUST TWO RATE CUTS (50 BPS) THIS YEAR VS. 7 RATE CUTS (175 BPS) AT START OF YEAR
🇺🇸 #FED SWAPS ASSIGN LOWER ODDS TO JUNE RATE CUT AFTER MARCH CPI - BBG