JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is warning of a 20% market plunge for the S&P 500 due to high interest rates. He believes that the current level of interest rates could lead to a recession. The S&P 500 is on the verge of its first five-week losing streak since May 2022, and historically, after such streaks, it has closed lower for the next five weeks. Kolanovic's opinion is just one among many, but it is worth noting. Over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting in the next two weeks are in the financial sector, with expected earnings growth of 8.7% year-on-year, led by insurance. However, if insurance is excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate would fall to 2.1%. The S&P 500 has shown positive trends over the past 12 months, but inflationary pressure and rising interest rates raise concerns about the future. The financial sector is projected to report earnings growth between 3% and 6% for the next three quarters. However, the S&P 500 is expected to report a year-on-year earnings decline of -0.3% for Q3 2023, which would be the fourth straight quarter of declines. On the other hand, it is expected to report year-on-year revenue growth of 1.7% for Q3 2023, which would be the 11th straight quarter of growth. The S&P 500 has experienced a tough tape for bullish equity sentiment, and if Q3 earnings come in as forecasted, it would make it four consecutive quarters of declines. The number of S&P 500 stocks hitting new intraday 52-week lows has recently reached its highest level since October 2022. Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 margins to trough at 11.2% in 2023 and remain below the 2021 record high of 11.8% through 2025. The S&P 500 has been closely tracking the market path of 2021, and it closed at 4361, the same level as two years ago. The index is up 0.01% after the latest CPI report. One year ago, on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 reached its closing low of 3577.03.
One year ago on Oct 12 2022 the S&P 500 reached its closing low of 3577.03 https://t.co/qTrLBCkFna
The S&P 500 is up 0.01% after the latest CPI report
I've noted for months the way the S&P 500 has been tracking the 2021 market path to an unusual degree, at nearly the same absolute levels. The index closed two years ago today at 4361, right there now. First chart is through today, the second is from a month ago... https://t.co/kwkiak7FyP
"The number of S&P 500 stocks hitting new intraday 52-week lows recently rose to the highest level since October 2022." @karen_langley https://t.co/ss33YwtaUz
"We expect S&P 500 margins will trough at 11.2% in 2023 but remain below the 2021 record high of 11.8% through 2025." - Goldman Sachs https://t.co/yKs6GEDoQO
Is the S&P 500 Now Going to Rally to 4800? Read all about it here: https://t.co/lraFaypWGG #SP500 #SPX #elliottwave #stockmarket
Over the past 50 days, an average of 25 more stocks in the S&P 500 have declined than advanced. That's one of the most extreme readings in the past decade. Learn more: https://t.co/2XJ9j5GtBl @jasongoepfert
A tough tape for bullish equity sentiment, especially when combined with current negative fundamentals The S&P 500 continues to be in an earnings recession If Q3 $SPX earnings come in at the forecast -0.3% drop, that will make it 4 consecutive quarters of earnings declines https://t.co/m7HaGHUYIz
WILL THE S&P 500 END NEXT WEEK HIGHER OR LOWER? CURRENT LEVEL: 4,308 LAST WEEK: +0.5% ✅ $SPY $SPX $ES_F 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/RmYH8pA2Lk https://t.co/oSGrpVt6eF
$SPX is expected to report Y/Y revenue growth of 1.7% for Q3 2023, which would be the 11th straight quarter of Y/Y revenue growth for the index. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/7NQgMGew1L https://t.co/krruM5P4Hq
$SPX is expected to report a Y/Y earnings decline of -0.3% for Q3 2023, which would be the fourth straight quarter of Y/Y earnings declines for the index. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/7NQgMGew1L https://t.co/qkxkr8O7I1
For the next 3 quarters, the $SPX Financials sector is projected to report earnings growth between 3% and 6%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/7NQgMGew1L https://t.co/kouP62FeVK
The S&P 500 Index has shown a positive trend over the past 12 months post-Oct '22. But with noticeable inflationary pressure and rising interest rates, what does the future hold? A thread. #SP500 #MarketTrends #chartoftheweek https://t.co/Xk9POYMzvD
The S&P 500 is coming up on one year since the 2022 low (10/12/22). Some stats since then: S&P 500 (cap-weighted): +20.3% Average S&P 500 stock: +12% Median S&P 500 stock: +8% % of stocks up/down: 65%/35% # of stocks up 10%+: 242 # of stocks down 10%+: 102
Over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting in the next 2 weeks are Financials. Sector earnings are expected to grow 8.7% YoY, led by Insurance (+64%). If Insurance were excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate would fall to 2.1%. @FactSet https://t.co/CtZJOyUiB8
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said he is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500 - CNBC “I’m not sure how we’re going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates”
JPMorgan's, $JPM, Marko Kolanovic has said he is bracing for a 20% market plunge.
$JPM Kolanovic expects 20% lower in equities ahead of a recession (just one opinion) https://t.co/u0i8zujzzf
JPMORGAN’S MARKO KOLANOVIC BRACES FOR 20% MARKET PLUNGE, DELIVERS RECESSION WARNING (CNBC) JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is bracing for a 20% sell-off to hit the S&P 500. According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for… https://t.co/XYKhVtEdEm https://t.co/4ZgkrXebCJ
The S&P 500 is one trading day & 0.71% away from it's first 5 week losing streak since May of 2022. What's interesting is that after recording a 5 week losing streak the S&P 500's then closed the very next week lower 5 times in a row (all by more than -1%) and 11 of the last 14… https://t.co/syaXl2NmDC