Initial jobless claims for the previous week came in at 209,000, beating estimates of 218,000, with continuing claims at 1.811 million, lower than the expected 1.905 million. California, Oregon, and Indiana saw the greatest increases, while New York, Ohio, and New Hampshire had the largest decreases. The 52-week moving average of initial jobless claims has been slightly decreasing since January. Despite a slight uptick, jobless claims remain historically low, indicating a thriving labor market amidst elevated interest rates. Significant revisions were made to continuing jobless claims due to a new seasonal adjustment methodology, with the year-over-year change showing improvement.
The layoff rate is lower than it was pre pandemic! https://t.co/gdXQ765JIq
Do recent QCEW data imply future downward revisions to employment? Not necessarily. 1/ We now have 6 additional months of the quarterly census of employment & wages beyond the benchmark date (Mar-23). The QCEW count is currently running -867K below the NFP count through Sep-23 https://t.co/fpnHIijAvx
Someone forgot to tell Empire Fed respondents that only illegal immigrant employment matters https://t.co/5LlWdWMBMl
Year/year change in continuing jobless claims continues to roll over … still elevated relative to history, but trending in better direction https://t.co/Hx51xqQXWW
US Jobless Claims Were Even Lower Than Expected https://t.co/UfVuNBF952
1) Big continuing claims revision last week. BLS adjusted seasonal factors. Adjusting for pandemic swings is taking time. CC NSA unchanged at 2113K last W. New vs old seas factors also had ~ 6% impact this W i.e. CC using old factors would've meant ~ 1920K vs 1811K this week. https://t.co/2YECrxaX6H https://t.co/pGkkdTXEub
Saw a lot on this. Here is BLS’s answer on this in their Q&A. The claim that nonfarm payroll is better at capturing undocumented workers than household survey is just a conjecture at this point. https://t.co/ceCA5amUQM https://t.co/GLKIxLHCHy
Big historical revisions to continuing jobless claims this week due to the implementation of a new seasonal adjustment methodology, with more modest impacts to the initial claims data. After the revisions, my initial reaction is I like the new approach much better than the… https://t.co/SwJpkbKzhA
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits last week inched up but largely stayed at historically low levels as the labor market continues to thrive despite elevated interest rates. https://t.co/FiIctkq9dF
The 52-week moving average of non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims has been trending ever so slightly lower since the end of January https://t.co/X79N9qljV8
Jobless claims dip to 209,00 and still show no sign of rising layoffs https://t.co/B0o2JxdOob
Initial jobless claims at 209k vs. 218k est. & 210k prior (rev down from 217k); continuing claims at 1.811M vs. 1.905M est. & 1.794M prior (rev down from 1.906M) … greatest increases in CA (+968), OR (+963), & IN (+430); greatest decreases in NY (-14.4k), OH (-1.5k), & NH (-585) https://t.co/ZoQPB9CJrJ
Jobless Claims Data Goes From The Sublime To The Ridiculous!! https://t.co/JlAAyKTPoN