Goldman Sachs Sees June US Payroll Gain of 85,000 as Hiring Cools

16 posts • OpenAI (o3)

Updated Jul 3, 2025, 05:31 AM

Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy added just 85,000 jobs in June, well below the roughly 110,000 positions economists anticipate and the three-month average gain of 135,000. The bank also projects private payroll growth of 85,000 and sees the jobless rate edging up to 4.3% from 4.2% in May.

The firm attributes the softer outlook to declining federal employment, the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, and the 145% tariff on Chinese goods that is weighing on manufacturing. Goldman predicts average hourly earnings will rise 0.3% on the month, leaving wages up 3.9% from a year earlier.

Broader surveys echo the slowdown: Bloomberg’s economist poll puts the expected payroll gain at 106,000, while a Reuters poll points to 110,000. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said he will focus on shifts in the unemployment rate when evaluating the data.

The Labor Department is scheduled to publish the June employment report on Thursday. A weaker-than-expected reading could strengthen views that the Federal Reserve will hold off on its next interest-rate cut until at least its September meeting.

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Sources

forexlive.com(2)reuters.com bloomberglinea.com economictimes.indiatimes.com

Reuters

@Reuters

The US labor market likely slowed further in June, with the unemployment rate expected to have edged up to more than a three-and-a-half-year high of 4.3%, as economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's policies curbed hiring