Economic forecasts for the United States indicate an upward revision in GDP growth expectations for the fourth quarter of 2023. Goldman Sachs has increased its Q4 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized rate, citing stronger-than-expected real state and local government spending, which grew around 4.5% last quarter. This revision also raises Goldman's full-year 2023 GDP forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model aligns with this optimistic view, predicting a 2.4% GDP growth for Q4 2023. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by Bloomberg have been revising their 2024 U.S. GDP growth estimates higher over the past six months, a shift from consistent downgrades seen throughout 2022 and into early 2023. The consensus forecasts for key data releases indicate a 2% real GDP growth in Q4 2023, down from 4.9% in Q3, with consumption growth also slowing to 2.5% from 3.1%. Inflation measures show a mixed picture, with December Core PCE inflation expected to rise slightly to 0.2% month-over-month from 0.1%, while the December PCE inflation figure remains undisclosed.
US GDP data due Thursday is expected to show the economy expanded at a 2% annual rate in the final three months of 2023, fueled by growth in household spending https://t.co/LFBZ49DU03
Atlanta Fed GDP Now model is now predicting +2.4% GDP growth for 4Q23.
Economists surveyed by @Bloomberg have revised their estimates for 2024 U.S. GDP growth higher over past six months, marking a turn from consistent downgrades in 2022 thru early 2023 https://t.co/1kThzvsfqG
GOLDMAN: “Real state and local government spending has recently been stronger than expected, .. growing around 4.5% last quarter .. [We] have therefore revised up our 2023Q4 #GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 2.1% .. also raising .. each of the next two quarters to 2.5% in Q1 and… https://t.co/dzEMEUAxlL
Goldman have revised up their 2023Q4 GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 2.1% (qoq, ar), which boosts their 2023 GDP forecast by 0.1pp to 2.8% (Q4/Q4 basis). Still below Atlanta Fed GDPNow of 2.4%
Quite a few heavy hitters on this week's list of data releases. Here's what to keep an eye on, with consensus forecasts for each: 1⃣4Q23 Real GDP Growth: 2%⬇️from 4.9% in Q3 2⃣4Q23 Consumption: 2.5%⬇️from 3.1% 3⃣Dec Core PCE inflation: 0.2% m/m⬆️from 0.1% 4⃣Dec PCE inflation:… https://t.co/cF9kOVZhf6