The German Ifo Business Climate Index for December came in at 86.4, below the expected 87.8 and the previous 87.3. Canada's New Housing Price Index for November showed a decrease of 0.2% compared to the expected increase of 0.1% and the previous 0.0%. Japan's BoJ Interest Rate Decision remained at -0.10%, in line with expectations. The Eurozone's CPI MoM final figure was -0.6%, lower than the forecasted -0.5% and the previous 0.1%. Canada's RMPI for November decreased by 4.2% against the expected -3.5% and the previous -2.6%. The US Redbook YoY actual figure was 3.6%, higher than the previous 3.4%. Japan's Imports YoY for November dropped by 11.9%, below the expected -8.6% and the previous -12.5%. Japan's Exports YoY for November also decreased by -0.2%, missing the expected 1.5% and the previous 1.6%. The UK's PPI Input Prices MoM and Output Prices MoM both fell, while the German PPI MoM decreased by -0.5%. The UK's RPI MoM figure was -0.1%. The UK's PPI Input Prices YoY and Output Prices YoY also decreased. The UK's CPI YoY was 3.9%, below the forecasted 4.3% and the previous 4.6%, and the Core CPI YoY was 5.1%, lower than the expected 5.6% and the previous 5.7%. South Korea's PPI MoM actual figure was -0.4%. The US GDP Price Index for Q3 remained at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The US GDP Q3 actual figure was 4.9%, below the previous 5.2% and the expected 5.2%. Canada's Core Retail Sales for October increased by 0.6%, surpassing the expected 0.5% and the previous 0.1%. The US Q3 GDP was the highest quarterly growth since Q4 2022, with the actual figure at 4.9%. The US GDP Sales for Q3 increased by 3.6%. The US Leading Index Change MoM actual figure was -0.5%, in line with expectations. Japan's National Core CPI YoY for November was 2.5%. The UK's Business Investment YoY for Q3 decreased by 2.3% compared to the expected 2.8% and the previous 8.0%. The UK's Retail Sales MoM for November increased by 1.3%, surpassing the expected 0.4% and the previous -0.3%. The UK's GDP YoY for Q3 was 0.3%, below the expected 0.6% and the previous 0.6%. The UK's Business Investment QoQ for Q3 increased by -3.2%, surpassing the expected -4.2% and the previous 1.4%. The UK's GDP QoQ for Q3 was -0.1%. The UK's Core Retail Sales MoM for November increased by 1.3%, surpassing the expected 0.0% and the previous 0.2%. Germany's Import Price Index MoM for November decreased by -0.1%. The US PCE Price Index YoY actual figure was 2.6%, lower than the forecasted 2.8% and the previous 3.0%. The US Core PCE Price Index YoY was 3.2%, below the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.5%. The US Leading Index MoM for November was -0.5%, in line with expectations. The US Personal Income MoM for November increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.2%. The US Personal Spending MoM for November was 0.2%. The US Core Durable Goods Orders for November increased by 0.5%. The US PCE Price Index MoM for November was -0.1%, below the expected 0.0%. The US Core PCE Price Index MoM for November increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%. The US Core Durable Goods Orders for November increased by 0.5%.
U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: -0.1% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0%
Are we there yet? Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target. This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation.
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 3.2% in November, the lowest since March 2021. The Fed Funds Rate is now more than 2% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since October 2007. https://t.co/82HItfT9cl
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S PCE PRICE INDEX -0.1% M/M, EXP. 0.0% *U.S. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX 0.1% M/M, EXP. 0.2% *U.S. PCE PRICE INDEX 2.6% Y/Y, EXP. 2.8%, *U.S. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX 3.2% Y/Y, EXP. 3.3% *U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS +5.4% M/M, EXP. +1.7%, *U.S. CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS… https://t.co/mR4rkYELxS
🔸 Post-Pandemic Inflation 'Is Now Over' The U.S. Fed's preferred inflation measure, the annual core PCE index, remains above the central bank's 2% target, at 3.2% in November. However, "there is clear evidence that the post-pandemic spike in inflation is now over," Capital…
Inflation (as measured by the Fed's preferred index) cooled in November, with the headline rate falling to 2.6% and the core rate falling to 3.2%. https://t.co/P8uzFvz0AI
November PCE #inflation +2.6% year/year vs. +2.8% est. & +2.9% prior … core +3.2% vs. +3.3% est. & +3.4% prior https://t.co/YvjlZVWaEU
More evidence of a decline in the US Inflation Rate... The PCE Price Index moved down to 2.6% in November, its lowest level since February 2021. Cycle peak was 7% in June 2022. https://t.co/trVUKqyCCJ
🏔️It’s still cloudy & will be bumpy, but inflation is on a nice downhill slope toward Fed’s 2% target ➡️ PCE price index -0.1% in Nov — 1st drop since Apr 20 ➡️ Core PCE: +0.1% PCE #inflation 👏Headline: 2.6% y/y (-0.3ppt) �� smallest gain since Feb 21 👏Core: 3.2% y/y (-0.2ppt) https://t.co/RldaRSDKVN
Wow, PCE inflation has been 2.6% over the past year. Only half a point above target! Graph via @katekgen at @BudgetHawks https://t.co/KJRyQt57LG
November Inflation readings continue to show progress: Core PCE +3.2% y/y- best since March 2021. 3 mos core +2.16% y/y and 3 mos headline at 1.39% y/y. Growth continues to be steady as well with Durable Goods up 5.4%.
November PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, falls to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.8%. Core PCE inflation falls to 3.2%, below expectations of 3.3%. This is the lowest PCE inflation number since May 2021. Send it ...
Wow. And there you have it. Six-month core PCE is at 1.87 percent, under the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. I was cautiously optimistic about 2023 - I have some 'soft landing' blog posts from a year ago - but this disinflation is far beyond what I imagined. Let's dig in. /1 https://t.co/NvAa5lq7Sv
We track 3 month annualized rate of change in core pce to see the recent trend. At 2.16% it is at the Fed's target. https://t.co/ALBkQIYlDS
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. NOVEMBER CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE +0.5%; EST. +0.2%; PREV. -0.3% 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/EIA2oeNbTV
The core PCE price index rose 3.2% in November from a year earlier. Over the last six months, the core PCE price index rose 1.9% at an annualized rate. (Over the previous six months, it rose 4.5%, annualized.) https://t.co/z2ExPiHBEn https://t.co/Is7poxn3Te
Reminder: Core PCE inflation, which the Fed has long preferred, of 3.2% is 60% higher than FAIT of 2% inflation. #Fed #inflation https://t.co/f9KlNaYe2A
Core PCE inflation is up 1.87% at an annual rate over the last six months as of November. Between used car & truck prices and housing rents, there is room for inflation to remain benign. We continue to see the Fed cutting its policy rate in March. https://t.co/BK3WNOTiJs
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. NOVEMBER CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 3.2% Y/Y; EST. 3.3%; PREV. 3.4% *LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2021 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/NWKBOq9OZt
🇺🇸 *US NOV. PCE PRICE INDEX FALLS 0.1% M/M; EST. 0.0% - BBG *US NOV. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. 2.8% *US NOV. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.1% M/M; EST. 0.2% *US NOV. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 3.2% Y/Y; EST. +3.3%
🔸 U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: -0.1% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0% 🔸 U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (NOV) ACTUAL: 2.6% VS 3.0% PREVIOUS; EST 2.8% 🔸 U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2% 🔸 U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (NOV)…
BREAKING: November PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, falls to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.8%. Core PCE inflation falls to 3.2%, below expectations of 3.3%. This is the lowest PCE inflation number since May 2021. Another welcomed sign by the Fed.
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. NOVEMBER PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. 2.8%; PREV. 2.9% *LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2021 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/Y6nsAzKTl7
PCE inflation (Fed's key gauge) headline in November: -0.1% core in November: 0.1% (same as Oct) year over year headline: 2.6% core: 3.2% https://t.co/hNiuHD5Zh4 https://t.co/WfUFziL6St
🔸 U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: -0.1% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0%
🔸 U.S PERSONAL INCOME (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: 0.4% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4% 🔸 U.S PERSONAL SPENDING (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: 0.2% VS 0.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%
US PCE PRICE INDEX YOY ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 3.0%) US PCE PRICE INDEX MOM ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST 0%, PREVIOUS 0.0%) US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX YOY ACTUAL 3.2% (FORECAST 3.3%, PREVIOUS 3.5%) US CORE PCE PRICE INDEX MOM ACTUAL 0.1% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.2%) US…
🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US PCE PRICE INDEX YOY ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 3.0%) $MACRO
🇪🇸 Spain Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3) $EUR Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.5%
🔴 FRENCH PPI YOY ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -1.2%) $MACRO
🔴 UK BUSINESS INVESTMENT QOQ ACTUAL -3.2% (FORECAST -4.2%, PREVIOUS -4.2%) $MACRO
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Business Investment (YoY) (Q3) $GBP Actual: 2.3% 🔴 Expected: 2.8% Previous: 8.0%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) $GBP Actual: 1.3% 🟢 Expected: 0.4% Previous: -0.3%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GDP (YoY) (Q3) $GBP Actual: 0.3% 🔴 Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.6%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) $GBP Actual: -3.2% 🟢 Expected: -4.2% Previous: 1.4%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GDP (QoQ) (Q3) $GBP Actual: -0.1% 🔴 Expected: 0.0% Previous: 0.2%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) $GBP Actual: 1.3% 🟢 Expected: 0.0% Previous: 0.2%
🇩🇪 Germany German Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov) $EUR Actual: -0.1% 🟢 Expected: -0.4% Previous: 0.3%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) $GBP Actual: 0.1% 🟢 Expected: -1.8% Previous: -2.5%
The November PCE price index is likely to show core inflation was very mild (between 0.0% and 0.1%, even though consensus is 0.2%), according to the forecasters who calculate this most carefully That would lower 12-month core PCE inflation to 3.1% and 6-month annualized, to 1.9% https://t.co/trLXFK2ax7 https://t.co/tbufAyfWo1
🇯🇵 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) $JPY Actual: 2.5% Expected: 2.5% Previous: 2.9%
🇺🇸 United States US Leading Index (MoM) (Nov) $USD Actual: -0.5% 🔴 Expected: -0.4% Previous: -0.8%
🔴 US LEADING INDEX CHANGE MOM ACTUAL -0.5% (FORECAST -0.5%, PREVIOUS -0.8%) $MACRO
🔸 US LEADING INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: -0.5% VS -0.8% PREVIOUS; EST -0.5%
Core PCE for Q3 at 2.00%, expected of 2.30%. Thus Core PCE (Federal Reserve's supposed favorite metric) has hit the Fed's inflation target U.S GDP (QoQ) (Q3) actual: 4.9% vs 5.2% previous; est 5.2%
The Fed's preferred inflation measure (core PCE) comes in right on target at 2%. Congratulations - let the rate cuts begin! https://t.co/onS6PZDJjP
Scratch that, we will be just BELOW target on a 3 and 6m annualized basis on core PCE inflation in November https://t.co/QfLDmRkFNA
Q3 USD GDP data! 🚨 Actual: 4.9% Previous: 5.2% Estimated: 5.2% The highest quarterly GDP growth since Q4 2022. Soft landing?
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S Q3 GDP 4.9% Y/Y, EXP. 5.2% *U.S. Q3 GDP PRICE INDEX 3.3% Y/Y, EXP. 3.5% *U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 205K, EXP. 214K *U.S. PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX -10.5, EXP. -3.0 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/Eld1b5PAsn
⚠️SUMMARY OF US Q3 GDP REPORT: 1. The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. 2. The 4.9% figure was downwardly revised from an earlier estimate of 5.2%, meaning the economy was actually weaker than previously anticipated. 3. The Real Consumer… https://t.co/VvuDQZSfMp
U.S GDP (QOQ) (Q3) ACTUAL: 4.9% VS 5.2% PREVIOUS; EST 5.2% $SPY $QQQ
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q3 GDP CORE PCE PRICES RISE 2.0% Y/Y; EST. 2.3%; PREV. 3.7% *LOWEST SINCE Q4 2021 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 https://t.co/utC0ZYUHeW
🔴 US GDP Q3 REPORT. https://t.co/lmw4zpKBgB
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q3 GDP PRICE INDEX RISES 3.3% Y/Y; EST. 3.5%; PREV. 1.7% 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 https://t.co/O1r7ayZufA
🔸 U.S GDP (QOQ) (Q3) ACTUAL: 4.9% VS 5.2% PREVIOUS; EST 5.2%
🇺🇸 United States GDP Sales (Q3) $USD Actual: 3.6% 🔴 Expected: 3.7% Previous: 2.1%
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q3 GDP RISES 4.9%, EST. 5.2%; PREV. 2.1% 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/XgbpnRaw2P
🇺🇸 United States GDP (QoQ) (Q3) $USD Actual: 4.9% 🔴 Expected: 5.2% Previous: 2.1%
🇨🇦 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) $CAD Actual: 0.6% 🟢 Expected: 0.5% Previous: 0.1%
🔴 US GDP PRICE INDEX ACTUAL 3.6% (FORECAST 3.6%, PREVIOUS 3.6%) $MACRO
🔸 U.S GDP (QOQ) (Q3) ACTUAL: 5.2% VS 5.2% PREVIOUS; EST 5.2%
🔴 S. KOREAN PPI MOM ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -0.1%) $MACRO
⚠️ UK CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.9% (FORECAST 4.3%, PREVIOUS 4.6%) UK CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 5.1% (FORECAST 5.6%, PREVIOUS 5.7%)
🔴 UK PPI OUTPUT PRICES MOM ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) $MACRO
🔴 UK PPI INPUT PRICES MOM ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST -0.6%, PREVIOUS 0.4%) $MACRO
🔴 UK PPI OUTPUT PRICES YOY ACTUAL -0.2% (FORECAST -0.5%, PREVIOUS -0.6%) $MACRO
🔴 UK PPI INPUT PRICES YOY ACTUAL -2.6% (FORECAST -3%, PREVIOUS -2.6%) $MACRO
🔴 GERMAN PPI MOM ACTUAL -0.5% (FORECAST -0.3%, PREVIOUS -0.1%) $MACRO
🔴 UK RPI MOM ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS -0.2%) $MACRO
🇯🇵 Japan Imports (YoY) (Nov) $JPY Actual: -11.9% 🔴 Expected: -8.6% Previous: -12.5%
🇯🇵 Japan Exports (YoY) (Nov) $JPY Actual: -0.2% 🔴 Expected: 1.5% Previous: 1.6%
🔴 US REDBOOK YOY ACTUAL 3.6% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 3.4%) $MACRO
CANADIAN CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.1% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) CANADIAN CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.1% (FORECAST 2.9%, PREVIOUS 3.1%) CANADIAN CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 0.3%) CANADIAN CPI COMMON ACTUAL 3.9% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.2%) CANADIAN CPI MEDIAN ACTUAL 3.4%…
🔴 CANADIAN CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 0.3%) $MACRO
🇨🇦 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Nov) $CAD Actual: -4.2% 🔴 Expected: -3.5% Previous: -2.6%
🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: CANADIAN CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.1% (FORECAST 2.9%, PREVIOUS 3.1%) $MACRO
🔴 EUROZONE CPI MOM FINAL ACTUAL -0.6% (FORECAST -0.5%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) $MACRO
🇯🇵 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision $JPY Actual: -0.10% Expected: -0.10% Previous: -0.10%
🇨🇦 CANADA NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX (MOM) (NOV) ACTUAL: -0.2% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.1%
🇨🇦 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov) $CAD Actual: -0.2% 🔴 Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.0%
🇩🇪 Germany German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec) $EUR Actual: 86.4 🔴 Expected: 87.8 Previous: 87.3