Multiple experts and analysts have raised concerns about the possibility of a recession in the U.S. economy in 2024. The yield curve inversion, a reliable indicator of economic downturns, has reached levels not seen since the Great Depression. Leading economic indicators also point to a recession, with a probability exceeding 60%, a level only observed twice since 1960. While some economists have lowered the probability below 50%, the majority still believe a recession is likely. These warnings come amidst ongoing discussions on how to prepare for a potential economic downturn.
"In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the… https://t.co/d41Npa2aH3 https://t.co/znuqyhONkR
Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 is now over 60% This level has been seen only 2 times since 1960 Both times, it ended in severe economic downturns While the Fed still believes in a “Soft Landing” Leading economic indicators strongly point to a recession This… https://t.co/UVr0NvmWoP https://t.co/ABymovcIIJ
Yield curve inversions have an incredible track record in anticipating recessions The 2022/23 inversion reached levels reminiscent of 1928 - the year before the Great Depression Even though there’s a lag between inversions and recessions Yield curve steepening from inverted… https://t.co/3xBvvWwy0k https://t.co/sgxByoNqoR
"My guess is we will have a recession. I don't know whether it will be fairly mild or fairly serious, but it will probably go deep into next year," per Jeremy Grantham.
A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared https://t.co/53R1bsABpP
just because the inverted yield might be sending a false positive about a recession this time doesn't mean it won't continue to have a pretty good track record. it should be taken seriously in the future, even if it totally blows it this time around.
Yield curve inversions and tightening of financial conditions historically precede recessions by 12-24 months. Pretty much everybody at month 8-9: “100% chance of a recession hitting soon!” Literally everybody at month 16-17: “Recession cancelled, this time is different”
YARDENI: “.. The prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East heighten the chance of a recession in the US. That’s not our base-case outlook, but we are raising the odds we see of a recession before year-end 2024 to 30% from 25%.” @yardeni
Here is how we think the recession will pan out! A Q1-recession seems to be the likely outcome now. Our playbook, time-line and how we trade is out here -> https://t.co/50Sk84wN0k https://t.co/0tcdE3J8iw
Bloomberg has said: A US recession Is still likely — and coming soon
Is an ugly recession for the U.S. economy up next? https://t.co/92siVOq8gY