The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest level since August 2022, driven by disappointing U.S. retail sales data. This decline is part of a broader trend, with the Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index also hitting its lowest point since early 2019 and March 2019. The economic surprise index measures how economic data compares to consensus estimates, and its recent fall below -40 indicates that most of this year's data has been below expectations. Analysts hope that the weaker-than-expected data could help ease inflation pressures and weaken bond yields.
Citi Economic Surprise Index has been weakening for the last 10 months and is approaching Spring 2022 levels but consumer spending remains robust per credit card data. One of the larger divergences seen in the last five years. Will see how it resolves. https://t.co/bULIvMfgsp
Most economic data has been weak, which has the Citi Economic Surprise Index low. But is this bad? Currently near the early '23 levels and a stock big rally. And it peaked in July last year, just as stocks started a 10% correction. https://t.co/AtX1Go3JoF
BREAKING: Bloomberg’s US economic surprise index has plummeted to its lowest level since March 2019. The economic surprise index measures economic data coming in above or below consensus estimates. The index dropped below -40, as most of this year's data has been below… https://t.co/folGsQ0TL4
Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest since March 2019 https://t.co/houBYx1wgb
Bloomberg's US economic surprise index hit its lowest level since early 2019. https://t.co/E6qTjWyRGW
The Citi US economic surprise index has fallen to about the most negative since 2022, h/t @daniburgz https://t.co/efRh4eUIsL
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen to the lowest since August 2022 https://t.co/a9BpKCM9oA
Bloomberg US Econ surprise index 5 year low https://t.co/rqE72MkpEi
Lowest level of the US Surprise index since Aug 2022 https://t.co/uvDqcj5lvw
Yesterdays US retail sales disappointment tips the Citi economic surprise index lower once again. Now down to the lowest level in a year. Hope is that the recent weaker than expected data could help ease inflation pressures, helping weaken bond yields... https://t.co/p29d7lXpoh
The Citi Economic Surprise Index is sinking again, driven by “hard data.” via @soberlook https://t.co/O3ZV8PxObY https://t.co/gOGfBnKSB8