Arbor Realty Trust ($ABR) is facing significant financial challenges, with Viceroy Research and AIMhonesty expressing concerns about the company's solvency and management decisions. Viceroy Research has highlighted Arbor's rapidly deteriorating portfolio, with over $1.25 billion in delinquent CLOs and less than 1% provisioning. AIMhonesty has criticized Arbor's lack of transparency and its expansion into multifamily housing, predicting a near 40% crash in value. Additionally, there are concerns about Arbor's buyback program and its ability to afford it. The company's CEO, Ivan Kaufman, has been mentioned in the context of the challenges faced by Arbor. Banks are also bracing for potential defaults from landlords in the commercial real estate market, with up to $160 billion in potential losses on loans.
Arbor will be leading the pack of delinquencies soon. Trapp data showing just how bad it is, and the worst is $ABR. https://t.co/qUsXfgjfPO
Arbor provisioned $70m Q3 2023? Goldman Sachs with $14Billion & wrote down $1.15 billion in Q2 & $335m in Q3. $ABR must be a magician!? Real Estate Woes Drive Billion-Dollar Hit for Goldman Sachs - BNN https://t.co/bB5igwXeXg
Arbor's provisioning is <1%. All while syndicates are paying 8.5+% on 80+%LTV for a 4.5% return. Valuations are down 20-40% from 2021. Especially aged multifamily properties bought at the peak & starved of any notable capex. $1.2 billion of delinquent loans up 50% in a month! https://t.co/R9AHAeky4N https://t.co/XQN3oiFO9w
How long can $ABR keep on going? Based on the data so far, they're in serious trouble & syndicate investors are pointing to a near 40% crash in value, lower occupancy, high costs & 8.65% interest costs. Essentially, they are not prepared to meet a recap. #Arbor is a zero. https://t.co/XPjMZfXlRY
Correct. Arbor is buying back these non performing loans from the CLOs at par. For instance, here is extract from trustee data: $ABR https://t.co/tatfpBfQVD https://t.co/LHIYEqHczD
Arbor – Delinquent Case Study https://t.co/2FV5U47ydo Viceroy dive into delinquent, unimpaired loans in Arbor’s portfolio. $ABR 1/
$ABR 2021 Q3 call. Ironically syndicators pushed values hard, it became a problem for many who did deals between 2020-22. Arbor are left playing ping pong between clo & own book. If clever, they would have been selling shares, but that would contradict the buyback announcement🤦 https://t.co/f000EnjIRP https://t.co/XQN3oiGlZ4
Banks are sitting on as much as $160 billion in losses on loans to the commercial real estate market as they brace for a wave of defaults from landlords in the year ahead, according to a report. There is currently a 10% to 20% default rate on commercial real estate loans,…
Calling all Arbor longs. Get on it, keep buying we have more to sell! $ABR is a bankruptcy. Come on look at the dividend... We @viceroyresearch formed an spv to deal with the dividend crowd. Come on buy! We will sell... https://t.co/as3ITzKg0B
For those following Arbor, check out @viceroyresearch. We have a lot more to come including appraisal values. Betting against bankruptcy is never a good thing. Kaufman as $ABR's CEO is skilled but he's never met Viceroy before. https://t.co/YFmIslnMQv
Public announcement - who wants Arbor shares. We @viceroyresearch have plenty to sell you. Contact [email protected]. As you can see we have had enough of the bullshit from bankrupt Arbor $ABR. https://t.co/IecFcHcvGK
$ABR Still waiting for a single sell side analyst to comment on Nov and Dec CLO trust data showing a credit train-wreck at Arbor. .. $UPST $AFRM $SOFI $SLG $VNO $RILY https://t.co/kiBIOBqjWt
We @viceroyresearch were waiting for today, longs, be prepared we accept a challenge now getting buying a piece of shit company writing cheques it can't afford. Arbor is bust... $ABR. We can stay solvent longer than arbor can. https://t.co/HyltCY0HKH
Currently less than 1% provisioning. $ABR's switch in out CLO game is dire. Arbor's equity is worthless & mgmt need to provision massively higher. Our campaign will not stop until Arbor's transparency improves. Dividend is gone. @viceroyresearch https://t.co/XQN3oiGlZ4
Arbor – December CLO Update. Report is now live. https://t.co/dt3otdf22X Sixty-nine of Arbor’s CLO loans are now delinquent: a 50% growth in the number of delinquencies month-on-month. Over $1.25b in Arbor deal balance in its CLOs alone now delinquent. $ABR 1/
Irony? $ABR's CEO Q3 2021 call. "Our biggest concern right now is the market turned into a syndicator market, where you have a lot of syndicators coming in with very little net worth and liquidity raising money and don't have the liquidity to withstand any bumps in the road." https://t.co/u9yxdzShGO https://t.co/9Xbxm8Ghn5
It's bad out there for $ABR. Massively expanding into multifamily housing at the peak of a bubble without any diversity will zero the stock. Arbor are a one-trick pony with a crisis on their books. Sub 1% provisioning is making this into a laughing stock of mgmt assumptions. https://t.co/9Xbxm8Ghn5
Brace yourselves, we have Arbor's December CLO data. As expected, Arbor’s portfolio has continued tor rapidly deteriorate, with $1.25b in deal value of its CLOs alone now delinquent. We will publish these figures & explanatory note @ 9am EST. $ABR 1/
$ABR has issued ~10m net new shares in 2023 alongside its pathetic repurchase program. Arbor can't afford its new $150 buyback program. It will continue issuing more shares than it buys back because it is cashflow negative. https://t.co/TNRaasbe18
Think about this! $ABR appear to be the lacking provisioning for wide scale defaults. Another story on how bad it is. No one is throwing good money after bad.’ Why 2024 looks like trouble for commercial real estate. https://t.co/h03QVMPTmQ via @MarketWatch