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A recent study by a well-respected crypto researcher, @tradetheflow_, reveals that over 80% of tokens listed on Binance in the last six months have lost value, despite the ongoing bull market. Only five tokens have shown profit, with ORDI leading at +261.9%, followed by JTO at +62%, JUP at +58%, and WIF at +117%. The biggest decliners include NFP at -62% and PORTAL. The study highlights the challenges faced by tokens with low initial circulating supply to fully diluted value (FDV) ratios, which have been underperforming significantly. The market cap of tokens launched in 2024 is the lowest in the past three years, despite companies maintaining high valuations. The findings suggest that the current tokenomics, particularly low float and high FDV, are detrimental to the long-term success of new token launches.
Maybe low float high FDV coins should switch to price based unlocks vs time based unlocks. Very crude instrument but if people know VCs can’t start dumping till 1b FDV instead of 3 months from TGE there is a bit more alignment. Not ideal but seems slightly better.
Researcher Flow counted the performance of 31 tokens listed on Binance in the past six months @tradetheflow_. Only 5 tokens have increased in price compared with the time they were listed: ORDI +261.9%, JTO +62%, JUP +58%, WIF +117%. The biggest decliners include NFP -62%, PORTAL… https://t.co/qiVh64kJnB
While the low float token meta certainly contributes to higher valuations for new listings. Project listings at a later stage of maturity and the maturing crypto private markets play a much more significant role in this trend. In the ICO era, new token listings were essentially…
The predatory tokenomics we saw with SBF sam coins (low float, high FDV, VCs stake locked tokens) is now a standard playbook for new token launches Result is almost zero upside potential for retail, pushing more and more people toward fully circulating memecoins (pvp zero-sum… https://t.co/UY6iWz3KV6
This post demonstrated that the FDV of high profile token launches historically tends to land in a range of 1-3 million ETH. This seems to have been true going back 7 years. And 2024 tokens if anything are probably cheap. Many objected to the framework was ridiculous. "Why would… https://t.co/DwFfI4fOYm https://t.co/EJRyKe6Gvr
"Crypto is notoriously bad for low float assets". Would it surprise you to learn the average contemporary IPO has an almost identical float % as the average high profile token launch? (12.8% vs. 12.5%) "Low float assets are guaranteed to have a down only chart". Would it… https://t.co/LY889QclNo
engagement low? watch this low float, high FDV token launches are bad
This is directionally correct but it’s a broken way to think about token valuation. Linearly - crypto is larger but as @VitalikButerin once said “did we deserve it?” The reality is most new token launches are being priced above most of their traditional venture counterparts. https://t.co/PQ2bjZWY2l
high FDV / low float token launches https://t.co/DzAw5tYEhM
Many people think that today's token launches are being priced much higher FDVs than in the past. What this doesn't take into account is that crypto prices are much higher. Once you adjust for this there isn't much difference. Let's take a look at some high profile launches from… https://t.co/gd9TxXMA96
the market is solving this in real time by absolutely destroying the charts on high fdv, low float, overpriced token launches https://t.co/dAl2gZflji
This analysis misses several key issues with today's launches: - Launch FDVs are way higher on average - Retail could participate in earliest investment rounds via ICOs versus only buying on liquid markets td - Enabling staking of vesting tokens for team/VCs with liquid yield https://t.co/QydI4mMJJm
There is over $70B in token unlocks to come from a bit more than a dozen projects over the next few years! (h/t @ThorHartvigsen, data from April) https://t.co/q5esUOcmEF
Seeing a lot of grief on CT about low float high FDV tokens performing like zombies. This is funny because not too long along a bunch of people were saying that FDVs don’t matter and only circulating market cap matters and the tokens with low float will keep going up despite…
Can we please stop with the low token float, high-FDV bullshit. It’s so last season and so scammy. Just release the tokens and let the market do its thing.
Launching a token with a low circ. supply and high FDV is a surefire way to kill the long-term success of the project. It becomes extremely difficult for regular participants to experience wealth effects from the token, and it creates an FDV that the project is chasing forever.
A good read by @BinanceResearch on the current state of low float high FDV token launches and their implications. A crazy stat from this report? There is $155b FDV of token supply unlocking over 2024 to 2030. TLDR of the article & some thoughts:🧵👇 https://t.co/whwOsTAQqJ
There seems to be this widespread notions that 2024 tokens are launching at particularly low float % at TGE. Comparing to the largest projects of the past few years, there just doesn't seem to be a lot to this complain. Here are the % float at TGE of other large projects of… https://t.co/a4NJOyphPP
Some interesting data on new launches high FDV launch -> bleed -> no mindshare/community -> bleed forever There aren't many investable new launches in the current market https://t.co/zUW1CCTh1O https://t.co/Luhsg3VXcg
This chart is making the rounds today, but I can't figure out if it's measuring the MC/FDV of 2022 vintage tokens at TGE or as of today. Because if it's the latter, of course tokens that have had two years to vest are going to have higher floats. And if it's the former, it… https://t.co/wayNmsj1Ny
The market cap of tokens launched in 2024 is the lowest in the past three years while companies maintain high valuations. Let’s examine the @Binance research report 👇 https://t.co/kMWmxSHKvh
A potential solution to the low float / high FDV problem: Let vesting/locked tokens be deposited as the quote (borrowable) asset in a lending market This would effectively increase the float via short interest, enabling price discovery, without allowing insiders to sell sooner
What are the alternatives? Leave all those high FDV coins bleed until they get fully dilluted. Starve them. No bids. Litteral hungers games where VCs and team play that lil game of exit liquidity between each others while we observe from the memecoins citadel Natural… https://t.co/2biFWN3CuR
The low float high FDV launch is universally hated, resulting in horrible down-only charts. But what are the alternatives? -ICOs - involve either legal risk or KYC'ing users -Airdropping more tokens to increase float - end up overpaying early users massively -Lockdrops - not…
Tokens with low initial circulating supply to fully diluted value ratios threaten the crypto market https://t.co/HOd8JBJjYi
FDV isn't a meme. Most low float high FDV coins that recently went live are down bad from their listing price. Be careful with what tokens you buy. h/t: @tradetheflow_ https://t.co/iuL7qaqH4t
📉 Over 80% of newly listed tokens on @Binance are struggling, with most showing significant declines. https://t.co/gxkCER5DTR
Good data in @BinanceResearch's report this morning re: the low float/high fdv token launches - I think this is the biggest reason for the focus on memecoins by retail this cycle The best way to solve this is move towards a variable supply of tokens in protocols subject to… https://t.co/SDObbQvBgf
THE HARSH TRUTH ABOUT BINANCE-LISTED TOKENS THAT VCS DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW… “In many ways the game is rigged” - Well-respected crypto researcher @tradetheflow_ conducted a study involving all crypto tokens listed on the @Binance exchange in the last six months, and their… https://t.co/7poErMchiI https://t.co/3NodpqNBf6
🚨JUST IN: MORE THAN 80% OF TOKENS LISTED ON @BINANCE IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS HAVE LOST VALUE SINCE LISTING - ONLY 5 TOKENS IN PROFIT DESPITE BULL MARKET