Myanmar is facing escalating violence and fragmentation as armed ethnic groups challenge the military regime. Experts suggest a future as a fragmented state or a loose confederation of independent states may be the best alternative. The country has been in a state of partial collapse since gaining independence in 1948.
Myanmar is undergoing fragmentation, with large parts of the country now under the control of various ethnic armed groups, writes @rshorsey. But this does not necessarily mean the country is headed for a catastrophic collapse. https://t.co/CcsjokqZBs
Myanmar's junta has lost control of large areas and key borders, enabling ethnic armed groups to expand and consolidate power. https://t.co/4IvPou55ds
The other forgotten conflict in Myanmar continues to escalate, with significant humanitarian implications. Recent reports suggest that the Arakan Army rebel groups has been ethnically cleansing multiple Rohingya villages in the west of the country. This is against the backdrop of… https://t.co/UZ2KG5Vp8O
Although Myanmar is undergoing fragmentation at the hands of armed ethnic groups, it is not a well-functioning state suddenly breaking apart, writes @rshorsey. Myanmar has been in a situation of partial collapse since it gained independence in 1948. https://t.co/y00KiCbVsP
If and when its civil war draws to an end, Myanmar might become "a loose confederation of independent states." https://t.co/T88IeQFigD
"The emergence of quasi-independent statelets is likely the least bad outcome for Myanmar in the medium term. The most probable alternative...is not peace under a federal democratic system, but brutal war." Or consolidation of a brutal military junta. https://t.co/oC6C2MlEEm
Since the military coup in 2021, violence has engulfed much of Myanmar, pitting regime forces against hundreds of resistance groups, writes @rshorsey. Now, the best alternative for the country may be a future as a fragmented state. https://t.co/TgmlYL9ssk
"Any attempt to negotiate a grand solution to Myanmar’s failed state-building process amid the current conflict and political crisis would likely result in more violence, not less." Read @rshorsey on what is in store for Myanmar: https://t.co/YsWnFIw7pO