Meteorological analysts are highlighting a significant severe weather threat across parts of the Midwest, particularly in Illinois (IL), Indiana (IN), and potentially southern Michigan, slated for Tuesday. Ensemble data, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), points to the formation of a surface low and an unusually warm, unstable air mass, conducive to severe weather conditions. The presence of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML), a dry slot, and favorable wind profiles suggest the possibility of all severe weather hazards, including tornadoes. Climatology typically does not support such severe weather in the Midwest in late February, making this event notably unusual. Additionally, ahead of the main event, elevated storms with an isolated hail threat are forecasted for northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, and southern Lower Michigan, potentially setting the stage for Tuesday's severe weather.
Tomorrow night, after midnight, some elevated storms are possible across northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. This would be ahead of warm front, with an isolated hail threat. This could potentially set up Tuesday's threat. #INwx #OHwx #MIwx https://t.co/aoEAZQQsw2
There remain questions about Tuesday, but all #severe threats are on the table (incl. a #tornado risk). That said, there are a lot of questions about coverage, intensity and placement. Illinois and Indiana, and possibly south-central Michigan away from the lakes, are most likely.
This Week in Storm Chasing: A new weekly series discussing the week of storm chasing that lies ahead. I did not expect to start it in February, but here we are. A highly conditional chase in IL on Tuesday, and a potentially more notable event next weekend. https://t.co/3m35Xz5JiM
Parts of the Midwest are at risk of experiencing severe weather this week, with the possibility of scattered thunderstorms and some tornadoes. https://t.co/jQtmniMh2V https://t.co/sWyHByYwlS
A little (big) taste of spring this week. Who doesn’t like lows in the 50s in February? NDFD forecast hi min records Tuesday, also scaled by degrees above the record. Some of these won’t materialize if temps fall enough before midnight. https://t.co/Mr9cvW7zWj
Climatology doesn't usually support a #severe weather threat in the Midwest in late February, but we can't always judge by climatology alone. There are uncertainties, but the potential is certainly there for Tuesday if all the elements come together right, particularly IL/IN.
Tuesday's potential severe weather event in Illinois features several intricacies. One of the more obvious ones is the developing surface cyclone in E IA/W IL. A stronger, more organized surface low will enhance the threat for severe weather fairly significantly in this scenario. https://t.co/pmBjP9Ap1f
Strengthening support for a localized severe weather event in IL on Tuesday. Ensemble data (ECMWF pictured) suggests an organizing sfc low and unusually warm, unstable airmass. The presence of an EML, dry slot & favorable wind profiles suggests all severe hazards are possible. https://t.co/NJyssurmHN