Tropical disturbance INVEST 94-L is being closely monitored as it moves westward. Forecast tracks indicate that it could potentially impact the Windward/Leeward Islands area in about a week. Various computer models suggest the possibility of tropical development. The next named storm would be called Tammy. The GFS model indicates that 94-L could become more organized in the Eastern Caribbean in the next 4-5 days. The system is currently moving slowly and may not cross the Atlantic due to the late season. The upper pattern and the speed of consolidation will be crucial in determining the structure and potential threat to the islands. The CMC/ICON models suggest a faster and further westward movement with a favorable upper pattern. The 12z ECMWF model shows 94-L impacting the islands as a hurricane late next week. The Caribbean islands should be on alert for this disturbance. There has been a significant increase in EPS members indicating the potential for 94-L to become a tropical cyclone in the next five days. However, caution is advised as there have been false alarms in the past. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the situation closely.
Huge uptick in EPS members wanting to make #94L a bonafide tropical cyclone over the next five days. We've seen some fakeouts in the MDR before on the EPS this season, so we'll have to keep an eye on this one. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor 94L. https://t.co/6MBWXo80te
The new 12z ECMWF shows #Invest94L impacting the Islands as a hurricane late next week. Going to have to watch this one at least for the Islands/Caribbean. https://t.co/gjTdW4KNqR
Well that's something we haven't seen much of this year 😬 Caribbean islands definitely need to be on alert for 94L. https://t.co/sn6861XLjV
Speed of #94L and where it consolidates will be critical for both the structure and potential threat to the islands. GFS: Eastern end consolidates, upper low adds shear and turns the system N. CMC/ICON: Faster, further west, upper low aids outflow, very favorable upper pattern https://t.co/LvLhL0FXTS
#94L continues to move slowly west. Not in any hurry to move across the Atlantic this late in the season. Global models still suggest development to varying extent. Remains to be seen exactly how favorable the upper pattern is, and whether it makes it into the Caribbean. https://t.co/jrwlo7o5fj
GFS seems to be trending towards #94L being more robust in the Day 4-5 range. Could take some time to get organized, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on in the Eastern Caribbean. https://t.co/FhlGWhRYDl
We monitoring INVEST 94-L. Forecast tracks move this westerly and many computer models bump this into the Windward/Leeward Islands area in 7+ days. Tropical development is possible. Next named storm is Tammy. https://t.co/GfR1E9NU2K