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Tropical Depression Twenty-One has formed near the coast of Nicaragua and is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding to the region. The depression is not expected to intensify into a named storm before moving inland. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has been slightly to somewhat above average for all parameters, with named storms and named storm days well above average. Large-scale conditions in the Caribbean are favorable for the formation of low pressure systems. A disturbance near the Bahamas has a small window of opportunity to become a depression or storm. There is also a potential for a tropical depression or storm to form in the Caribbean this week.
Watching a weak tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean for a chance of amplification this week in a low-shear environment. Both GFS and ECMWF ensembles show a chance of tropical storm formation as the system moves westward. It's getting late in the hurricane season, but… https://t.co/MXcefOkbOn https://t.co/GR09cG0eMP
Central America will be looking both ways this week—to a potential system in the Caribbean and to Tropical Storm Pilar, already drenching parts of the region. Here's the latest from me and @DrJeffMasters. @CC_Yale https://t.co/13HU3RhvaI
A Caribbean disturbance could become a tropical depression or storm this week. https://t.co/ro7leDBlFK
Been this way for a while this season but the upper-air pattern in the Caribbean next week is basically the inverse of what you'd expect with a strengthening El Niño. MJO phase is helping, but this is still wild, regardless of what does/doesn't develop down there. https://t.co/ajLVMNJK6y
Strong signal for organizing low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean going into next weekend from both the GFS and Euro ensembles. Too soon to know much more, but widespread water temps topping 86°F (30°C) give good reason to stay tuned. (maps via @TropicalTidbits @BMcNoldy) https://t.co/rufpPdsohl
The hurricane season isn't quite over yet! If this was August or September, the disturbance near the Bahamas would be a big concern. This time of the year, it's not. It has a small window of opportunity to become a depression/storm tonight or Monday but the strong cold front… https://t.co/HsnaS6XBbl https://t.co/ZM2HhDU8Iv
Will El Niño bring a wet or dry winter? For much of the US West, it’s a coin flip https://t.co/4mYk19caz5 https://t.co/ru7vpUNJkd
Keep a half an eye on this convection near the islands associated with a tropical wave. Invest #96L is on the north side of it (shouldn't do much), but some models hint at something trying to form from the south side of this later in the Caribbean - we'll see. https://t.co/zmZOxvIWhn
With the MJO shifting over the Americas in the extended, it's worth keeping an eye on the pattern for tropical development in the Caribbean. Lots of uncertainty with various ULL's and areas of remnant vorticity as well. Synoptic pattern and very warm water say pay attention. https://t.co/WvW2KEvpXz
Large-scale conditions still look favorable for the Caribbean at the start of November. Seems likely we will at least see low pressure form down there. Models vary widely with whether anything organized will form, though. GFS/GEFS bullish, not surprisingly. EPS/Euro more tepid. https://t.co/CsHrU1Fwpi
Here's how the 2023 Atlantic #hurricane season stacks up with the average season through October 24th. Slightly to somewhat above average for all parameters, with named storms and named storm days being well above average to date. #Tammy https://t.co/XgGXg6UEM9
Remnants Of #Twenty-One Advisory 4: Tropical Depression Dissipates Inland. This is the Last Advisory. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Tropical Depression #Twenty-One Advisory 3: Tropical Depression Producing Heavy Rainfall Over Nicaragua. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
11PM EDT Oct 23: Here are the Key Messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-One near the coast of Nicaragua. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding is primary threat. For more information visit https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ https://t.co/oWLy0anDyZ
Tropical Depression #Twenty-One Advisory 2: Center of Tropical Depression Located Near the Coast Of Nicaragua. Heavy Rainfall Remains the Primary Threat. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Here are the Key Messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-One Advisory 1, located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea near the coast of Nicaragua- Heavy rain producing flash flooding is the primary threat. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ https://t.co/tibK5GzFnc
#NEW Tropical Depression 21 has formed in the Atlantic (Far western Caribbean). It is expected to bring heavy rain to central America tonight and not strengthen ! https://t.co/ziJnOMDU1c
NEW: Tropical Depression 21 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, and will bring heavy rain to #Nicaragua and perhaps northern Costa Rica. It will “run out the clock” and move inland before having time to intensify into a named storm. https://t.co/ZlE1TzTT2J
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21 has developed near the coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean. It will move ashore before becoming a tropical storm, but will will still drop up to a foot of rain. #SCwx @wmbfnews https://t.co/lsuthN8tIk
NEW: Tropical Depression 21 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, and will bring heavy rain to #Nicaragua and perhaps northern Costa Rica. It will “run out the clock” and move inland before having time to intensify into a named storm. https://t.co/lEPotHPYc3
Tropical Depression #Twenty-One Advisory 1: Tropical Depression Forms Near the Southern Coast of Nicaragua. Heavy Rainfall is the Primary Threat. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One, located near the southern coast of Nicaragua, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
Whether anything will actually form or not, who knows (so far #95L has been the only Caribbean action), but this continues to be a very non-El-Niño favorable upper pattern advertised in the medium range ensembles as we approach the end of the month. https://t.co/uylC0yrb0k
We’re entering a pretty strong El Niño—here’s what that means for a US winter https://t.co/xoghHVCiJt