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A tropical depression or storm named Vince is expected to form near the Bahamas, but it is likely to be short-lived due to dry air. Another potential system is developing in the Caribbean with a 30% chance of genesis over the next 7 days. Computer models are showing agreement that something may develop in the eastern Caribbean. The potential system is expected to move into Central America or Cuba. There is a wide discrepancy between the GEFS and EPS in terms of the speed of development. The system is not expected to impact Florida. The western Caribbean is a common origin for late-season hurricanes, with 80% of Category 3 or stronger hurricanes originating from there. The system in the Caribbean fits within the November climatology, although it is rare during El Niño. The GFS and Euro models show different scenarios for the development and track of the system. The system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, reducing its chances of becoming a tropical storm. There is a 70% chance of tropical development in the Caribbean later this week, with the potential for it to become a hurricane as it heads towards Central America. The system could bring heavy rainfall and be a rainfall disaster. The 6Z GFS model suggests that the chance of a strong system in the Caribbean is unlikely, with a moderate tropical storm being the most likely outcome. The convective activity in the system appears to be weakening, but a tropical storm is still possible.
Last night's convective flareup in #97L appears to be weakening...still has quite a bit of work to do to try to organize. Probably won't be as strong as GFS/GEFS was showing yesterday, although a TS is still possible. https://t.co/3h5lIb7IPo
With the 6Z GFS dropping anything of a strong system, the chance of more than a moderate TS in the Caribbean seems to be dead. Likely will end up with a 35 kt mess that looks like dung on satellite moving into Nicaragua
As expected NEW invest97L south of PR is expected to head west and develop (perhaps into a hurricane) before it reaches Central America or even comes close. Some guidance brings it straight across and some turns it north towards Cuba eventually. The time frame seems to be into… https://t.co/IQ6hLANSbv https://t.co/Qs81PTJ9YE
Invest 97L will likely become a tropical storm in the Caribbean this week; possibly a hurricane as it heads toward Central America. https://t.co/zd1Ja3cJtS
A tropical depression may form in the Caribbean later this week. 70% chance of tropical development. https://t.co/ztBtDF1VTN
Even if it doesn't turn into an Eta/Iota monster, would be problematic to have a TC moving slowly into Central America as steering weakens to the north. Could be a rainfall disaster as the GFS shows. Gonna have to monitor the progress of this system. https://t.co/1Z57M7JqmN
TROPICS: An area of low pressure (Invest 96L) with associated disorganized showers is located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm… https://t.co/tXa7QqQPKd https://t.co/WHclxpRBPV
Euro might be pulling a 2022 and sending the Caribbean system so far south that it ends up seeding another East Pacific cyclone rather than Atlantic, particularly if it ends up getting enhanced by a gap wind event. https://t.co/ARtdYtxuZt
Might be seeing the GFS do the thing where it backs off convectively as we get closer to the genesis time period (for the Caribbean in this case). I'd imagine it's still gonna spin something up later this run, but this is a bias to watch out for at times. https://t.co/wECbd0limR
ConUS Forecast Fire Smoke 10/30-31 #HRRR model Near Surface and Vertically Integrated Smoke concentration with #SPC Fire Weather Outlook overlay. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/UYhh4dbsIB #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/y4wlnQpmWU
View of Aviation Hazards 10/30 real-time #GOESEast/#GOESWest #ABI Fog/Low Stratus (#FLS) Instrument Flight Rules products. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/CF5NeDTrRW #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/wMMEpvezyh
View of the Tropical Atlantic basin today 10/30 real-time #GOESEast ABI Full Disk Visible product with #NHC Tropical Storm overlay. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/HCtGCZLV48 #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/ozGW4IssAz
About a third of hurricanes to form this late in the season have come from the western Caribbean, but 80% of Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to arrive this late have had western Caribbean origins. My morning discussion on what's brewing this week: https://t.co/EJ41q7ERNp https://t.co/3yhEFNlMwk
Central America and Caribbean basin featuring PTC #Tammy and Hurricane #Pilar today 10/30 #GOESEast #ABI True Color, Infrared and #GLM Lightning Density products. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/RoHxhuqfIh #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/wKtpkBfLDV
The potential system in the Caribbean definitely fits within overall November climo - most systems down there either go into Central America or across Cuba this time of year. Pretty rare to see them during El Niño, though - Ida in 2009 was the last one and only 2 on record. https://t.co/HUolNcWGEp
Convection popping up south of Puerto Rico with the trough that has a chance to develop this week. Huge discrepancy even short term between GFS and Euro, with no signs of development on the latter. Euro kind of missed on Tammy so it's possible its weak bias is back - we'll see. https://t.co/P4GebjrgkG
TROPICS: Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system (Invest 96L) located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain… https://t.co/a1KKuuInAW https://t.co/JH9ra3HodE
GFS continues to be much more aggressive with Caribbean development than the ECMWF. It does seem to be trending more towards ECMWF with a stronger ridge to the north, though, which would serve to push any developing TC into Central America. We'll see where (if) something forms. https://t.co/S9nuutQ4EN
The final days of October find hurricane season not ready to settle down. A fading disturbance near the Bahamas will not be an issue, but a tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean could become as issue. Computer models are coming into agreement something may develop, yet… https://t.co/eeCOeac8Aq https://t.co/MsSuIpm5ZG
fair chance of a Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane this week. However, it likely is not going to Florida. Likely burying itself into Nicaragua and Honduras, just like in 2020
8pm EDT 29th Oct -- Two areas to watch this evening in the NATL basin. 1⃣) An area of low pressure E of the Bahamas has a 40%🟠genesis chance over the next day. 2⃣) Another area of low pressure could form in the Caribbean w/ a 30%🟡7-day genesis chance. https://t.co/DboWSR4Ct1 https://t.co/n3ZagIROoc
On a serious note, there continues to be a wide discrepancy between the GEFS and EPS in terms of how quickly something develops and moves across the Caribbean next week. GEFS is stronger and slower, EPS is weaker and faster, although both show development in a favorable pattern. https://t.co/mf7cFDhxXh
If we do get an organized system In the Carribean this week, it may come from a disturbance in the eastern portion of that body of water. A lot of thunderstorms are milling around south of Puerto Rico and east of the Lesser Antilles ATTM. @BMcNoldy @DrRickKnabb @capitalweather https://t.co/gGbbkES4AK
ConUS Forecast Fire Smoke 10/29-30 #HRRR model Near Surface and Vertically Integrated Smoke concentration with #SPC Fire Weather Outlook overlay. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/1t466WqyR2 #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/JQEzdMS6V0
Last couple GFS runs have trended towards a stronger Atlantic ridge north of a possible Caribbean system, pushing it faster west and likely leading to heading into Central America rather than the NW Caribbean. https://t.co/c0NU1UvHtV
View of Aviation Hazards 10/29 real-time #GOESEast/#GOESWest #ABI Fog/Low Stratus (#FLS) Instrument Flight Rules products. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/7fCSAXtcH3 #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/1FAkFrYJMe
Central America and Caribbean basin featuring PTC #Tammy and TD 19E today 10/29 #GOESEast #ABI True Color, Infrared and #GLM Lightning Density products. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/11zGraXUXQ #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/Fiq0Bt49YA
View of South America today 10/29 #GOESEast ABI True Color and IR products with #GLM Lightning Group Density overlay. See a hi-res version here-> https://t.co/ztpyGzNWYa #RealEarth™ #UWSSEC #UWCIMSS @SSECRealEarth https://t.co/ETssO24Rga
A lot to see in this #GOESEast enhanced water vapor loop including the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) belt of moisture around the equator and a Low pressure swirl (AL96) east of the Bahamas likely to become a tropical depression or storm but short-lived due to dry air. https://t.co/0ub6xRIXtb
Don't be surprised if a quick tropical depression or storm named Vince is classified near the Bahamas. That next cold front we've been tracking will smack any of this business away, though! https://t.co/2oH25K7d9Z