Parts of the Midwest, particularly Illinois (IL) and Indiana (IN), are bracing for a potential severe weather event on Tuesday, driven by a developing surface cyclone in Eastern Iowa (E IA)/Western Illinois (W IL). This unusual weather pattern for late February, featuring scattered thunderstorms and possible tornadoes, is notably atypical as climatological data does not typically support such severe weather threats in the Midwest during this time of year. Additionally, the region is experiencing unusually high temperatures for February, with lows in the 50s and forecasted high minimum records. This week's weather anomalies are part of a broader discussion in a new weekly series titled 'This Week in Storm Chasing,' highlighting the week of storm chasing ahead.
This Week in Storm Chasing: A new weekly series discussing the week of storm chasing that lies ahead. I did not expect to start it in February, but here we are. A highly conditional chase in IL on Tuesday, and a potentially more notable event next weekend. https://t.co/3m35Xz5JiM
Parts of the Midwest are at risk of experiencing severe weather this week, with the possibility of scattered thunderstorms and some tornadoes. https://t.co/jQtmniMh2V https://t.co/sWyHByYwlS
A little (big) taste of spring this week. Who doesn’t like lows in the 50s in February? NDFD forecast hi min records Tuesday, also scaled by degrees above the record. Some of these won’t materialize if temps fall enough before midnight. https://t.co/Mr9cvW7zWj
Climatology doesn't usually support a #severe weather threat in the Midwest in late February, but we can't always judge by climatology alone. There are uncertainties, but the potential is certainly there for Tuesday if all the elements come together right, particularly IL/IN.
Tuesday's potential severe weather event in Illinois features several intricacies. One of the more obvious ones is the developing surface cyclone in E IA/W IL. A stronger, more organized surface low will enhance the threat for severe weather fairly significantly in this scenario. https://t.co/pmBjP9Ap1f