Invest 97L, a disturbance in the Caribbean, is not expected to form into a tropical cyclone as it moves over Central America. The system remains broad and lacks concentrated low pressure. However, heavy rains and the threat of flooding are expected in Central America. The warm waters and favorable environment around 97L pose a significant rain/flood threat. The system is part of a migrating Modoki El Nino pattern, with warm water moving from ENSO 1.2 to ENSO 3.4. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low development chance of 10% but warns of heavy rains and potential mudslides in higher terrain. Overall, 97L is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone but will bring significant rainfall to Central America.
SOI values continue to be unimpressive, well less than other el nino years and indicative that the overall el nino this year as far as weather is more in a weak to moderate mode, not strong as the ONI suggests. MEI and TPI also not coming along for the ride https://t.co/rOcDa8Mvz1
8pm EDT 3 Nov: Invest #97L expected to move into Central America tonight or Saturday & with a low development chance (🟡10%). Regardless, heavy rains are expected in Central America that could produce flooding with mudslides in higher terrain. https://t.co/Xhmye8si9P https://t.co/yvGSGKSqKC
Here's the latest on INVEST 97-L. Tropical development unlikely, however this will be a big rainmaker for Central America. https://t.co/HzSAx6U6hd
Really just a pristine environment around Invest 97L this afternoon. Beautiful upper-level anticyclone, negligible shear, juiced atmosphere, and some of the warmest waters anywhere. Thankfully, 97L is too broad to get its act together, but the rain/flood threat is tremendous. https://t.co/xo0drYtgeJ
Been watching Invest #97L most of the week. The system remains a very broad cyclonic circulation similar to Central American Gyres we can get this time of the year. Main impact is heavy rainfall over Central America w/ flash flooding possible, esp after #Pilar's rains earlier. https://t.co/R28Rwk2puW
For those of you following, I have been saying this is a migrating Modoki el nino ( my own phrase) where core of warmest water migrates from enso 1.2 to enso 3.4. Those are the stormy cold el nino winters in US. Canadian SST all in https://t.co/NmG4QmSbJv
#97L is a nice illustration of how a favorable large-scale pattern sometimes isn't enough to get a TC. Very warm SST, and satellite shows a moist environment with healthy outflow/low shear. But the broad system with no concentrated low pressure means it hasn't taken advantage. https://t.co/BdX4Xf61Rz
Invest 97L is yet another classic example of the GFS/GEFS false alarm bias for western Caribbean tropical cyclones — both lacked much support among other models, and while heavy rains are still expected in Central America, a tropical cyclone is unlikely to form. https://t.co/Vo37Hljp5d
Looks like Disturbance 52 (97L) will move over Central America before it can consolidate. Only a slight chance of doing anything