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Invest 97L, a trough of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea, is expected to become a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane as it moves towards Central America. Despite some organization, models are showing less potential for the disturbance. The chance of a strong system in the Caribbean seems unlikely, with a forecast of a 35 kt mess moving into Nicaragua. The convective activity associated with the disturbance has diminished and not become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more conducive for development in a couple of days.
So far #97L remains a very broad wave with no compact vorticity maximum developing. Models have backed off relative to a couple days ago, and now predominantly expect the entire system to get ushered into Central America before any significant organization can occur. 📉 https://t.co/7f34JEajSM
Interesting to see how far south models have trended with a weaker version of Invest 97L this week. Some outside scenarios even track the low close to Costa Rica, a country unaccustomed to direct tropical cyclone impacts. Heavy rain regardless from Nicaragua north to Belize. https://t.co/E8JOcH2fr6
Odds of a tropical system forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea before moving over Central America Saturday continue to decrease. Still not out of the question a tropical depression could form between now and then. It's no threat to the U.S. #scwx #ncwx https://t.co/OyXoBP3Zv2
#97L is producing some loosely-organized convection, but not really close to TC status. GEFS has definitely backed off on intensity, although it still shows a chance for development before the system reaches Nicaragua. Upper winds are favorable, just hasn't taken advantage. https://t.co/8DvtzzQ1Om
TROPICS: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure (Invest 97L) over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development in a couple of days, and a tropical… https://t.co/wOFWV9mQjW https://t.co/9pNmDLr7oG
In the tropics we are still monitoring INVEST 97-L. 60% chance of development over the next 7 days. https://t.co/CFi5ad2kvZ
Big swirl left behind by the last tropical disturbance, which formed off the tail of Tammy https://t.co/zuJl2cn0ap
Currently a 60% chance of tropical development (97L). https://t.co/ux5fhxVTBe
INVEST 97-L is forecast to continue moving in a westerly direction. https://t.co/QAVyXuVdcl
TROPICS: Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low pressure (Invest 97L) over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished and not become any better organized this afternoon. Although environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further… https://t.co/dxK2ELM2cm https://t.co/kGhr8m30PP
Watching the disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea, despite a burst of overnight thunderstorms, daylight satellite images reveal it's not much better organized. Also, there may be several areas of "swirls" and no focused area of spin/convergence, meaning development in the… https://t.co/43FB5QTGsa https://t.co/8SrCpxqTJ4
Looks like a weak area of low level rotation being shed out of #97L towards Hispaniola this morning. Convection has not been able to maintain itself. Euro seemed to pick up on this evolution pretty well. Curious if it's able to rebuild at all, but not looking healthy for now. https://t.co/azVReCbrnJ
TRACKING THE TROPICS: The latest on Invest #97L and what November may bring... Join us! https://t.co/UR6wgQMcG7
Last night's convective flareup in #97L appears to be weakening...still has quite a bit of work to do to try to organize. Probably won't be as strong as GFS/GEFS was showing yesterday, although a TS is still possible. https://t.co/3h5lIb7IPo
With the 6Z GFS dropping anything of a strong system, the chance of more than a moderate TS in the Caribbean seems to be dead. Likely will end up with a 35 kt mess that looks like dung on satellite moving into Nicaragua
As expected NEW invest97L south of PR is expected to head west and develop (perhaps into a hurricane) before it reaches Central America or even comes close. Some guidance brings it straight across and some turns it north towards Cuba eventually. The time frame seems to be into… https://t.co/IQ6hLANSbv https://t.co/Qs81PTJ9YE
Canadian is keeping the upper ridge displaced to the north, resulting in fairly strong easterly shear over Disturbance 52 (97L) Surprisingly, despite the organization tonight, models are doing less with the disturbance
Invest 97L will likely become a tropical storm in the Caribbean this week; possibly a hurricane as it heads toward Central America. https://t.co/zd1Ja3cJtS