Invest #94L, a disturbance in the Caribbean, is showing signs of organization and potential development into a tropical cyclone. However, models have been inconsistent in predicting its intensity. Some models suggest a strong hurricane, while others indicate a weaker storm. The disturbance poses a potential threat to the Eastern Caribbean, with the Lesser Antilles advised to monitor its progress. Dry air and unfavorable low-level winds have been factors affecting the disturbance's convection and overall organization. Meanwhile, another tropical cyclone, invest #90E, is expected to form in the East Pacific and could pose a threat to Mexico.
While #94L sputters along in the MDR, the late-season East Pacific will continue to produce. New invest #90E appears likely to form into a TC in the coming week, and has a chance to be another system that turns back NE towards Mexico. Worth keeping an eye on this one there. https://t.co/yPsseVke0L
Comparing current satellite with 24-h forecasts from yesterday, #94L is less convectively active than models were indicating, which is likely part of the reason for models downtrending. Still something that needs to be watched, but the dry air may be winning the battle for now. https://t.co/QN6vjm7Bec
#94L still struggling to maintain convection at the moment. Between this and the forecast trend towards more SW shear east of the islands, I think the intensity of this may be capped. Surprised at the overall lack of organized convection right now - might be dry air getting in. https://t.co/qd8r2AXsoB
Wonder if this dry air to the NW (showing up nicely in a recent GPM overpass) is partially responsible for the pulsing nature of the convection in #94L? We'll see what happens with the most recent flareup, and if the weaker trend on tonight's model runs holds. https://t.co/ZRId366lVR
18Z models continue the trend of a weaker TC This is likely to be another model cane flop. Likely will get a named storm out of Disturbance 47 (94L), but not an intense hurricane. It's the low level winds that are not going to be favorable, which is more important than… https://t.co/s4WwHhSeYi
Favorable ridge trend for the islands on the 12z Euro, maybe allowing a window for #94L to miss to the NE if it continues. Still this is a 7-day forecast so a lot could change still. https://t.co/NrK74j6Ygu
12Z EC much weaker than 0Z, similar track just north of the Caribbean
GEFS trending a bit south with #94L - may be a function of slightly delaying development. Definitely something to monitor in the Antilles. https://t.co/Oqb1d5pAEM
12Z models coming in a touch weaker. Biggest change is the UKMET which now indicates no development until it is nearly over the northern Leewards
Disturbance 47 (94L) has a ways to go before becoming a depression. Remains elongated and convection is dying off. May need 2 more bursts to tighten up a well-defined LLC Be careful about the model runs going intense hurricane. They have said this for 5 other systems (Bret,… https://t.co/mPEapWdKjk
While some of the overnight convection wanted, #94L is looking fairly organized this morning. Models continue to trend towards this developing into a TC in the coming days. Could be at least a close call for the Eastern Caribbean. Still lots to sort out with the forecast. https://t.co/12JMpW0pMF
Overnight trends were not great likely due to #94L getting significantly better organized. The 00z EPS agrees on the system becoming a robust storm east of the islands, with some signal for a strong hurricane in the area. Those in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on this. https://t.co/BneRELliyy
Welp, microwave imagery just rolled in for #94L and this sure doesn't look like an invest anymore. Note the upper level outflow expanding to the north and west as well. https://t.co/eUWVwGoYPJ
The GFS has been much too dry with Invest #94L, which likely explains why it has been so hesitant to develop the disturbance. This degree of correction at such a short lead time is a bit concerning… not sure what the model is “missing”. https://t.co/YjiJJBwo6n