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Invest 94L, a broad area of low pressure located in the central tropical Atlantic, is showing signs of organization and is likely to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. The system, currently lacking a well-defined center of circulation, is expected to move west-northwest. Environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures, are conducive for gradual development, although shear and the broad structure may limit its progress. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system, which is forecasted to move towards the western part of the basin. The development of Invest 94L is a forecast challenge due to discrepancies in models/ensembles in the speed of recurvature. The system is expected to bring stormy weather to the islands in the Atlantic as early as Thursday night.
Need to keep an eye on a disturbance near 7N, 29W This may be what the models are trying to develop by the Caribbean late next week.
Wednesday morning finds our elongated disturbance in the Atlantic getting a little better organized as it moves west at a steady pace. At the present speed, regardless of development, it will begin bringing stormy weather into the islands as early as Thursday night. https://t.co/cymZAmRKKR
TROPICS: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure (Invest 94L) located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a… https://t.co/A7jvzNBI9s https://t.co/87g2xXCPlQ
Here's a look at the latest forecast tracks for INVEST 94-L. https://t.co/4eGsY4fNt7
2pm Oct 17 - A low pressure area (#AL94) over the central tropical Atlantic has become better organized today. This system will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves toward the western part of the basin. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ https://t.co/fwkZCxitXZ
Invest #94L is currently a broad system, lacking a well-defined center of circulation. However, it appears likely a tropical cyclone will form over the next 2–3 days as the system moves WNW. SSTs are very warm (~30 C !), but shear and the broad structure may limit development. https://t.co/YfgKir6RV7
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Monitoring low pressure in the Atlantic. When the system may be named. Plus a look at the new pattern setting up. https://t.co/l88izsJe3x
Another forecast challenge for #94L if it develops (and one we've seen a few times this year) is a discrepancy in models/ensembles in the speed of recurvature. Sunday we have EPS members ranging from just SE of Bermuda to others hanging out in the NE Caribbean. https://t.co/i7Zxkx4TF4
TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure (Invest 94L) located over the central tropical Atlantic, about midway between the Windward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to… https://t.co/ke3vgPTS35 https://t.co/Gov9AMycrw