Invest 94L, a disturbance in the Caribbean, is struggling to develop into a hurricane as it faces challenges from dry air and unfavorable wind conditions. The latest model runs show a weaker trend for the system, with fewer members supporting its development. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Sean is forecasted to become a remnant low later today. The focus now shifts to a new invest, 90E, in the East Pacific, which has the potential to turn back towards Mexico. Bloomberg will continue to monitor these systems and provide updates.
Post-Tropical Cyclone #Sean Advisory 21: Sean Degenerates Into a Remnant Low. This is the Final Advisory. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
The https://t.co/VDPx6GPjEP winter forecast was first alluded to at the end of last winter. We used the idea of bounceback el nino developing by migrating into the enso 3.4 regions for mid winter. The result gave us a 500 mb pattern like this( from April): UKMET now sees it https://t.co/93gds0wczW
While #94L sputters along in the MDR, the late-season East Pacific will continue to produce. New invest #90E appears likely to form into a TC in the coming week, and has a chance to be another system that turns back NE towards Mexico. Worth keeping an eye on this one there. https://t.co/yPsseVke0L
Tropical Depression #Sean Advisory 20: Sean Forecast to Become a Remnant Low Tonight. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Pretty remarkable drop-off in EPS support for #94L developing on this afternoon's 12z run - probably about 80% fewer members compared to yesterday's run. https://t.co/23xvE05IHA
EC dropped Disturbance 47 again. Just a wave crashing into the Caribbean
Tropical Depression #Sean Advisory 19: Sean Forecast to Become a Remnant Low Later Today. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Comparing current satellite with 24-h forecasts from yesterday, #94L is less convectively active than models were indicating, which is likely part of the reason for models downtrending. Still something that needs to be watched, but the dry air may be winning the battle for now. https://t.co/QN6vjm7Bec
#94L still struggling to maintain convection at the moment. Between this and the forecast trend towards more SW shear east of the islands, I think the intensity of this may be capped. Surprised at the overall lack of organized convection right now - might be dry air getting in. https://t.co/qd8r2AXsoB
Tropical Depression #Sean Advisory 17: Sean Hanging On as a Tropical Depression. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ
Wonder if this dry air to the NW (showing up nicely in a recent GPM overpass) is partially responsible for the pulsing nature of the convection in #94L? We'll see what happens with the most recent flareup, and if the weaker trend on tonight's model runs holds. https://t.co/ZRId366lVR
18Z models continue the trend of a weaker TC This is likely to be another model cane flop. Likely will get a named storm out of Disturbance 47 (94L), but not an intense hurricane. It's the low level winds that are not going to be favorable, which is more important than… https://t.co/s4WwHhSeYi
Favorable ridge trend for the islands on the 12z Euro, maybe allowing a window for #94L to miss to the NE if it continues. Still this is a 7-day forecast so a lot could change still. https://t.co/NrK74j6Ygu
12Z EC much weaker than 0Z, similar track just north of the Caribbean
GEFS trending a bit south with #94L - may be a function of slightly delaying development. Definitely something to monitor in the Antilles. https://t.co/Oqb1d5pAEM
12Z models coming in a touch weaker. Biggest change is the UKMET which now indicates no development until it is nearly over the northern Leewards
Disturbance 47 (94L) has a ways to go before becoming a depression. Remains elongated and convection is dying off. May need 2 more bursts to tighten up a well-defined LLC Be careful about the model runs going intense hurricane. They have said this for 5 other systems (Bret,… https://t.co/mPEapWdKjk
Ham sandwich Sean is a joke What is behind it though is not. Will be a strong late season hurricane and could threaten NE Caribbean next weekend. East coast may have tropical feature from central America entrained into trough that buckles but what will be Tammy will stay east https://t.co/FaZipKnX7W
EPS 00z is very interested in developing Invest 94L into a powerful Hurricane and tracking it WNW through the northern Leeward Islands. Rare for mid-to-late October. The next name is Tammy. https://t.co/wC91cQOR4e
Extratropical #Bolaven racing out to sea. Satellite imagery depicts the partially exposed low level circulation as the storm becomes increasingly sheared apart. https://t.co/9QQqmkEnyz https://t.co/WzR8bHuXhI
While some of the overnight convection wanted, #94L is looking fairly organized this morning. Models continue to trend towards this developing into a TC in the coming days. Could be at least a close call for the Eastern Caribbean. Still lots to sort out with the forecast. https://t.co/12JMpW0pMF