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Tropical weather activity in the Atlantic is being closely monitored as a robust wave, Invest #94L, moves behind Tropical Storm #Sean. The frontal systems are dipping down to around 25N, giving the subtropics an October-like appearance. Forecast tracks suggest that Invest #94L could potentially develop into a tropical cyclone and move towards the Windward/Leeward Islands area in about a week. The GFS model indicates that Invest #94L may take some time to organize but is worth keeping an eye on in the Eastern Caribbean. The speed and consolidation of Invest #94L will be critical in determining its structure and potential threat to the islands. The GFS model has struggled with predicting genesis this year, so its forecast for Invest #94L may not be accurate. The CMC and ICON models, on the other hand, show a faster and more amplified wave, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The 12z ECMWF model also indicates that Invest #94L could impact the islands as a hurricane late next week. The chances of tropical development for Invest #94L are now at 50%. While there has been an increase in the number of EPS members predicting tropical cyclone formation for Invest #94L, caution is advised as there have been false alarms in the past. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the situation closely. The GFS model remains the only major global model that does not forecast development for Invest #94L, showing a drier pattern and a more diffuse system compared to the EC, CMC, and ICON models.
INVEST 94-L chances of tropical development now up to 50%. https://t.co/u8CEeX9sGK
INVEST 94-L is forecast to move westerly over the next 5 days. Here's a look at the forecast model tracks. https://t.co/T44RykBn3r
GFS remains the lone major global model holding off on development of #94L - shows a drier pattern and more diffuse system compared to EC/CMC/ICON which are all similar in consolidating a TC. Will be good to come back to this in 3-5 days to see how this genesis forecast verifies. https://t.co/EbooI1Y5am
Huge uptick in EPS members wanting to make #94L a bonafide tropical cyclone over the next five days. We've seen some fakeouts in the MDR before on the EPS this season, so we'll have to keep an eye on this one. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor 94L. https://t.co/6MBWXo80te
The new 12z ECMWF shows #Invest94L impacting the Islands as a hurricane late next week. Going to have to watch this one at least for the Islands/Caribbean. https://t.co/gjTdW4KNqR
Well that's something we haven't seen much of this year 😬 Caribbean islands definitely need to be on alert for 94L. https://t.co/sn6861XLjV
Tropical Storm #Sean and INVEST 94-L are located in the Atlantic. INVEST 94-L may develop into the next named storm(Tammy). https://t.co/GzZgRf0BrU
Speed of #94L and where it consolidates will be critical for both the structure and potential threat to the islands. GFS: Eastern end consolidates, upper low adds shear and turns the system N. CMC/ICON: Faster, further west, upper low aids outflow, very favorable upper pattern https://t.co/LvLhL0FXTS
Today's 12Z model runs are painting a range of solutions with Invest 94L. For example, the GFS has a broad and drier wave, whereas the CMC has a much more amplified wave, on the verge of becoming a TC. The GFS has really struggled with genesis this year. This may be another case. https://t.co/11L8K0PM85
#94L continues to move slowly west. Not in any hurry to move across the Atlantic this late in the season. Global models still suggest development to varying extent. Remains to be seen exactly how favorable the upper pattern is, and whether it makes it into the Caribbean. https://t.co/jrwlo7o5fj
GFS seems to be trending towards #94L being more robust in the Day 4-5 range. Could take some time to get organized, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on in the Eastern Caribbean. https://t.co/FhlGWhRYDl
We monitoring INVEST 94-L. Forecast tracks move this westerly and many computer models bump this into the Windward/Leeward Islands area in 7+ days. Tropical development is possible. Next named storm is Tammy. https://t.co/GfR1E9NU2K
Pretty interesting Atlantic satellite view this morning. Looks like October in the subtropics with the frontal systems dipping down to ~25N. But the deep tropics still look more like September, with TS #Sean moving NW and a robust wave, Invest #94L, following behind. https://t.co/EFdcIH13hy