Meteorologists predict an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, with the ECMWF model forecasting a busy hurricane season. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now, but a surge of Caribbean moisture next week could lead to heavy rain in Florida and the North Gulf.
TROPICS: NHC expects no tropical storm formation during the next seven days across the Atlantic basin. Ensemble output from the European global model continues to show only a very low (10-20 percent) chance of tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico in the June 16-18 time… https://t.co/XZHzbSAkTY
Model continue to show a surge of Caribbean moisture into the Gulf next week, with the chance of an area of low pressure developing. Doesn't look like it would be a strong system even if something does form, but heavy rain seems likely across parts of FL and the North Gulf. https://t.co/ZCs6VPUBb9
TROPICAL WEATHER: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and NHC projects no tropical storm formation for the next seven days. We note low probabilities of tropical storm formation (10-30 percent) inn the Gulf of Mexico are now showing up in output from the European global model… https://t.co/fpbEy6IP0P
Florida is frying! It’s been super hot and very dry. But relief looks like it’s on the way. Could see a few inches of rain the 2nd half of next week. Looks much more like a messy broad low, than an organized tropical system. But either way the result will be similar. Downpours. https://t.co/SofoqNfDcI
A summer like pattern shift seems likely to occur after the second week of June. While the strongest signal is for near to above normal temps, increasing humidity also seems likely which may lead to more periods of showers and storms. Stay up to date on the forecast! #ILwx #INwx https://t.co/7PCvXGHF10
Good news this Thursday evening--the tropics in the Atlantic remain quiet, and we're not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days. As always, be sure to monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook frequently for potential changes to the forecast at… https://t.co/gJ6jJWo0D1
June 5, 2024 Tropical Update | Weather Trader Atlantic remains very quiet along with the rest of the global tropics Preview and subscribe for hurricane season [daily+ email updates] https://t.co/X2kDLSPaA0 https://t.co/mCAOSjPWpe
All remains quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with no tropical development expected the rest of this week through this weekend. Next week might be a little different as there's the possibility that the area from the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf… https://t.co/JHVMZMBVB3
Deep tropical moisture will pool in the northwest Caribbean Sea later this weekend and could drift into Florida where they need the rain. The chances of it actually becoming a tropical system next week are very low. Only the GFS is showing any development but it is notorious… https://t.co/lz99iv4poW
In my daily discussion, I talk about a warming pattern for 2nd half of June. The ECMWF seasonal update which is still calling for 21 NS, 11 H and 2x the ACE from July onward in the Atlantic. And the possibility of tropical development in the NW Carib/Gulf. https://t.co/IsYHnlmRal https://t.co/etXENvCjYP
ECMWF calls for busy Atlantic #hurricane season with ~21 named storms, ~11 hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy 200% of normal (~250 total ACE) between July-December. Ensemble average calls for borderline #LaNina and very warm Atlantic for Aug-Oct (peak of Atlantic season) https://t.co/Vrs8JGdQ92
Hot off the presses - June ECMWF seasonal modeling continues to show double the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (ACE) as the rather active climatology from 1993-2023 - 2.0 in the green bar. 10% below normal in the E Pacific and 30% below normal in the W Pacific https://t.co/SAEWSXrzRZ
After what has been a rather lackluster start to the South Florida rainy season, it appears that we will get it going next week as the atmosphere moistens up with the help of a Caribbean tropical moisture connection. Enjoy the summer sunshine, wetter days not too far away. https://t.co/6u5L57puYh
The pattern becomes a bit more unsettled in the days ahead...there is essentially a chance of a shower/storm each day with Thursday being the most likely https://t.co/YcWlz70jCX