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Climate experts are predicting a hotter and drier summer in South America due to the combined effects of climate change, the first El Niño in almost four years, and mass deforestation. The forecast is based on the arrival of an approaching frontal boundary and a ridge building to the north of Hurricane Tammy. The track uncertainty of Tammy is much greater than usual, with the possibility of it recurving or getting captured and swinging back west/northwest. Despite the uncertainty, models suggest that Tammy is likely to weaken and lose its tropical characteristics. The upper pattern in the Caribbean is non-El Niño favorable, increasing the chances of further tropical activity in the region. Climate experts are also speculating whether Tammy or a similar system could make its way back to the US, similar to the Yankee Hurricane of 1935. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a strong El Niño this winter, reaching the most significant level since the record-breaking warm winter of 2015-2016.
El Niño is forecast to be strong this winter and reach the most significant level since a very strong El Niño fostered the warmest winter on record across the US mainland during 2015-2016, according to NOAA. https://t.co/jgs7eQO8LT
Can Tammy ( or some form of Tammy) come all the way back to the US. Would need pattern of Yankee Hurricane oct 30-Nov 8 1935. Likely similar set up with ridge over troubled water shoving upper feature with entrained low level cyclone back west and southwest https://t.co/WKnN2YfxMC
Whether anything will actually form or not, who knows (so far #95L has been the only Caribbean action), but this continues to be a very non-El-Niño favorable upper pattern advertised in the medium range ensembles as we approach the end of the month. https://t.co/uylC0yrb0k
Still a huge amount of spread on where #Tammy will go as it interacts with an upper low cutting off to its southwest. Could recurve or get captured and swing back west/northwest. Seems likely to weaken and lose tropical characteristics, though. https://t.co/jYWY1g090j
Climate change, the arrival of the first El Niño in almost four years and mass deforestation are likely to make the South America's coming summer season even hotter and drier https://t.co/auwLpDJuGa
Tammy recurves but then gets tangled up in trough between Bermuda and PR, then comes back west under the ridge. models trying the ridge over troubled waters pattern https://t.co/iUMaO3CBEm
Tricky forecast for Hurricane Tammy in the medium term associated with its interaction with an approaching frontal boundary and a ridge building to its north. Track uncertainty is much greater than usual. https://t.co/99btiwQtuj
Based on radar out of #Guadeloupe, it looks like the core of #Tammy will miss the island just to the east. Short-term forecasts from HAFS-A and HAFS-B suggest that Antigua and Barbuda (especially Barbuda) may experience more direct impacts this evening. Will be close. https://t.co/vWsj4AAOsj