Experts are forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season with a prediction of 33.1+/-5.8 total named tropical cyclones, ranging between 27 and 39 storms. The ocean heat content in the Atlantic's main development region is unusually high, aligning with values typically seen in July. Historical data suggests the region may end up cooler than the exceptionally warm 2023. Early forecasts indicate a potential system in the Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Various factors point towards a busy hurricane season ahead.
Back on DECEMBER 7 we put out this forecast for the hurricane season this year. If we take a look at the blend of the highest impact seasons this century, we find Mays 500 MB forecast on the CFSV2 looks like 3 of them, as well as the ASO forecast Notice position of positive https://t.co/GpVe5dO9de
The tropical Atlantic continues to run in some uncharted territory. One of several ingredients for a busy hurricane season...but hard to ignore https://t.co/wzLQlmdNj5 https://t.co/D2Cs6Gfj8V
EPS 45-day forecasts now into June and official beginning of Atlantic hurricane season. My storm tracker doesn't pick anything up in the open tropical Atlantic. However, early system in Gulf of Mexico certainly possible, although a low % this far out https://t.co/NziODsT2vx
Area-averaged daily SST charts for four North Atlantic sectors are now available on my website! The domain plus that day's SST anomalies are shown in the inset map, and 2023 is highlighted for comparison. https://t.co/jKXIddQG6v https://t.co/VJGWec3MqX
Another look at projecting the Main Devpmt Region SSTs forwards based on historical MDR warming behaviour as of 24 Apr onward. Even if we hit only the 10th percentile of warming since 24/4 we end up 0.2 degrees cooler than 2023's super-warm year. Over to you, Saharan dust, etc. https://t.co/b4AOUClMQs
It just doesn't end! The ocean heat content in the Atlantic's "main development region" (MDR) is where it would typically be on July 10... 76 days from now. And the eastern portion of the MDR, from 60-20°W lines up with the average value on July 16. 🤯 https://t.co/CdrzWVvKiZ https://t.co/klxAS9E0fd
The most active forecast of the hurricane season so far from @MichaelEMann “The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones…range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms.” https://t.co/E1YLSjPrsV