Shanghai, with a population of 26 million, has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world at just 0.6 births per woman, with some districts reporting a total fertility rate (TFR) as low as 0.4. This phenomenon is attributed to high population density and crowding, which are believed to negatively affect fertility rates. Research published in 2017 in China Policy Review, a journal under the Chinese State Council, highlighted that high urban population density is correlated with lower fertility rates, using Tokyo and London as examples. Economically, higher prices per square foot lead to smaller living spaces, limiting room for children. Psychologically, crowding suppresses the urge to have more children. The direction of causation remains debated, with some arguing that higher density leads to lower fertility, while others believe that lower desired fertility leads to higher density.
Why do New Yorkers have so few kids? (a) Living in the city makes it hard to have kids. (b) Having kids makes it hard to live in the city.
High density correlates with low fertility, but what's the direction of causation? (a) Higher density causes people to choose lower fertility. (b) Lower desired fertility causes people to choose higher density.
Why does density seem to cause lower fertility? (a) Economics: When price per square foot is high, people buy little living space, so they lack room for kids. (b) Psychology: Crowding directly suppresses the urge to breed, regardless of price per square foot.
Birth-Rates Are Plunging In The World's Most Populous Countries https://t.co/iax3vUPBz6
In 2017, I published a paper in China Policy Review, a journal under Chinese State Council, using Tokyo and London as examples to illustrate that population density is negatively correlated with fertility rate (TFR), and concluded that China's high urban population density make… https://t.co/neGpyVi2zI
What is the lowest fertility in the world? Shanghai (pop. 26 M) has a fertility rate of just 0.6 births/woman, but many districts in Shanghai have a TFR of just 0.4! Density and crowding are big causes. How should we build for better family formation? Important 🧵, please share. https://t.co/cW8UhSx5lY https://t.co/2D6CGVnPwe