China April Exports Beat Forecasts, Up 8.1%, as U.S.-Bound Shipments Slump 17.6% After Tariffs

China’s exports rose 8.1% in April from a year earlier, defying forecasts of about 2% growth and marking the first monthly reading since Washington’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods took effect on 9 April. The General Administration of Customs on Friday said the increase, though slower than March’s 12.4%, was driven by robust demand ahead of the tariff deadline and by stronger sales to non-U.S. markets. Imports fell just 0.2% year-on-year, a considerably smaller decline than the 5.9% drop economists had projected, helping to keep the monthly trade surplus at a sizeable US$96.1 billion. In yuan terms, exports grew 9.3% and imports 0.8%, leaving a surplus of CNY690 billion. For the first four months of 2025, exports are up 7.5% and total trade has reached CNY14.14 trillion, an annual increase of 2.4%. The headline figures masked sharply diverging regional trends. Shipments to the United States tumbled 17.6% from March—or roughly 21% on a year-earlier basis—to US$33.0 billion, narrowing China’s bilateral surplus to US$20.46 billion. By contrast, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations jumped more than 20%, while sales to the European Union climbed about 8%, cushioning the impact of the U.S. slump. Economists said the outperformance likely reflects a rush by global clients to take delivery before tariffs bite fully, as well as Chinese exporters’ efforts to redirect goods toward faster-growing markets. Whether the momentum can be sustained will depend on how long the order-front-loading lasts and on any further escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions.