Gareth Soloway
@GarethSolowayNon Farm Payrolls to be reported at 8:30am ET. Expectations are for 138K jobs added with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Markets ideally are looking for an in-line or slightly stronger number.
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U.S. April Jobs Report Expected at 138,000 with 4.2% Unemployment Amid Recession Fears
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April jobs report on Friday, which will provide insights into the labor market's response to President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies. Economists anticipate a significant slowdown in job growth, with expectations for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 138,000 jobs in April, down from 228,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%.
The tariff escalation announced on April 2, dubbed 'Liberation Day' by Trump, led to the largest single-day stock market drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. Although Trump later suspended some tariffs, the effective tariff rate remains at its highest level in over a century, according to the Yale Budget Lab. This economic uncertainty has heightened recession fears on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs raising its recession odds to 45% and JPMorgan estimating a 60% probability of a recession this year.
Despite these concerns, the labor market has continued to perform well under Trump's administration, adding an average of 170,000 jobs monthly this year. Inflation has also cooled, with price increases well below the peak seen in 2022. The upcoming jobs report will be crucial in assessing whether the tariff policies are beginning to impact employment, as the U.S. economy showed a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, declining at a 0.3% annualized rate after a 2.4% growth in the last quarter of 2024.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, acknowledged the 'solid condition' of the U.S. economy but cautioned about signals of a potential slowdown, stating, 'Life moves pretty fast.'
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