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Atlanta Fed Revises Q1 2025 U.S. GDP Growth to -2.2%, Gold Imports Adjust to -0.1%

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Updated Apr 16, 2025, 05:39 PM

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has revised its estimate for first-quarter 2025 U.S. GDP growth to -2.2%, an improvement from the previous estimate of -2.4%. This adjustment reflects recent economic data releases, including a retail beat. An alternative model forecast by the Atlanta Fed, which adjusts for the impact of gold imports, indicates a much smaller contraction at -0.1%. This suggests that the influence of gold trade significantly affects the overall GDP figures. The GDPNow model's projections are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Recent updates show an increase in the nowcast for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 0.7% to 1.4%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has boosted its Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +0.4%, and the Bank of Canada estimates that GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2025, with shelter continuing to negatively impact GDP.

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