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Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns Recession Would Worsen U.S. Budget Deficit, Saving $500 Billion in Long-Term Interest Rates

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Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns Recession Would Worsen U.S. Budget Deficit, Saving $500 Billion in Long-Term Interest Rates

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  • Sam Ro 📈
  • James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️

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Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok has stated that creating a recession to lower long-term interest rates is not a viable strategy. He emphasized that such an approach would not improve the U.S. budget deficit, as the deterioration in government finances during a recession would outweigh the savings from reduced interest payments. Specifically, while a recession could lead to an estimated $500 billion in savings from lower interest payments, the resulting decrease in tax revenues and increase in unemployment benefits would exacerbate the deficit by more than double that amount. This perspective underscores the complexities of managing fiscal policy in the context of economic downturns.

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    朝倉智也(Tomoya Asakura)
    朝倉智也(Tomoya Asakura)Twitter verified badge
    @tomoyaasakura

    The recession cannot be used to improve budget deficits. Specifically, due to an economic recession, the US government is expected to be able to save about 500 billion dollars of interest payments per year if interest rates drop 2%, but due to a decrease in tax revenue due to the economic recession and an increase in unemployment benefits, the deterioration range is more than double the interest payment reduction amount obtained by falling interest rates. https://t.co/qiewX0GXJP

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    Bloomberg
    BloombergTwitter verified badge
    @business

    A US recession would widen the US budget deficit, eclipsing the savings from lower interest rates and borrowing costs, according to Apollo’s chief economist https://t.co/XfpLL5It4L

    James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
    James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️Twitter verified badge
    @JimPethokoukis

    "Itis not possible to improve the budget deficit by creating a recession because during a recession government finances would deteriorate by double the amount saved in interest payments - Torsten Sløk. Apollo Chief Economist https://t.co/V3PxwBcB4R

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Story Timeline

  • Latest version
    Apollo's Torsten Sløk Says $1.3 Trillion Fiscal Cost of Recession Outweighs $568 Billion Interest Savings on US Deficit
  • Original version
    Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns Recession Would Worsen U.S. Budget Deficit, Saving $500 Billion in Long-Term Interest Rates