The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, particularly from July to December. The forecast suggests approximately 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 250, which is 200% of the normal ACE. This prediction aligns with other seasonal forecasts that also anticipate above-normal hurricane activity. The model indicates that the Atlantic is warmer than expected, possibly due to a slightly weaker Bermuda high. Additionally, a borderline La Niña is expected during the peak season from August to October. However, it is worth noting that previous aggressive forecasts, such as in 2022, were not entirely accurate. The ECMWF's AI model also shows a potential increase in tropical moisture from the Caribbean, which could impact rain-starved regions by mid-June. Additionally, the forecast suggests a significant decrease in cyclone activity in the Eastern and Western Pacific regions, with the Western Pacific expected to be at 70% of average ACE. Weatherbell's forecast aligns closely with ECMWF, predicting an ACE of 240.
Atlantic seasonal forecasts for 2024 are nearly unanimous in calling for above normal hurricane activity. Do seasons with a higher total number of hurricanes correlate to higher seasonal economic loss costs? From 1990 to 2023? Generally yes, but not always. (1/3) https://t.co/uzLjm3jjzB
The ECMWF seasonal hurricane forecasts notoriously run a little hot and aren't as skillful as @philklotzbach or @NOAA, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against them this year. Large scale fields look reasonable. An ACE of 250 would be really something if verified. https://t.co/wl2ToOuYEC
In my daily discussion, I talk about a warming pattern for 2nd half of June. The ECMWF seasonal update which is still calling for 21 NS, 11 H and 2x the ACE from July onward in the Atlantic. And the possibility of tropical development in the NW Carib/Gulf. https://t.co/IsYHnlmRal https://t.co/etXENvCjYP
Its whack a mole season, and given the overall ideas on hurricane have to pay attention to models trying to spin things up. So far the GFS ( notorious for that) and the Euro AI are leading the way in these rumors of storms. Not a good look for AI fans as its all over the place… https://t.co/Wi28pJKQi1
ECMWF calls for busy Atlantic #hurricane season with ~21 named storms, ~11 hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy 200% of normal (~250 total ACE) between July-December. Ensemble average calls for borderline #LaNina and very warm Atlantic for Aug-Oct (peak of Atlantic season) https://t.co/Vrs8JGdQ92
New Euro supports Weatherbell with its ACE at the top of our range ( 240) and its highest frequency about as close as a model can get to our hand-drawn from December! WPAC way down at 70% average. Makes sense https://t.co/nPKFaltOmP
new ecmwf continues to show a hyper active season
Worth noting that the only other ECMWF June seasonal forecast this aggressive was 2022, and that year the forecast busted quite a bit too high. So there's no guarantee it'll be a huge year. But the parameters in place this year make me a little more confident of high activity. https://t.co/3GLsksF7cy
Not surprised to see a busy seasonal forecast from ECMWF given the parameters in place as we start the season. The Atlantic looks warmer than the forecast last month, perhaps due to a slightly weaker Bermuda high in the mean. https://t.co/w57cfmKX74 https://t.co/YQzB1WBZf4
Hot off the presses - June ECMWF seasonal modeling continues to show double the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (ACE) as the rather active climatology from 1993-2023 - 2.0 in the green bar. 10% below normal in the E Pacific and 30% below normal in the W Pacific https://t.co/SAEWSXrzRZ
ECMWF AI model is pretty hopeful on a change in luck for our rain-starved state as we head into mid-June. A fetch of tropical moisture appears likely to open up from the Caribbean. #flwx https://t.co/QdoTO4arP6