China to Achieve 100+ DeepSeek-Like AI Breakthroughs in 18 Months, Narrowing U.S. Lead Amid Talent and Data Advantages

China is poised to achieve over 100 breakthroughs similar to its DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) model within the next 18 months, according to a former top official. The country’s extensive accumulation of training data over the past six decades, largely by observing the United States and Western countries, has provided it with a competitive edge in AI development. This advantage is rapidly narrowing the technological lead once held by the U.S., as Chinese AI models gain popularity worldwide and challenge American dominance. The success of China's DeepSeek-R1 model has surprised U.S.

observers and highlighted the importance of human talent in AI competitiveness. Analysts note that China’s strategic investment in AI talent development, including a massive engineering education initiative started four decades ago, underpins its current advancements. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces challenges such as restrictive copyright lawsuits and underutilized data, which may impede its ability to maintain global AI leadership. China’s approach also includes developing more personalized AI systems and leveraging new data sources, such as automotive data, to fuel AI progress once internet data is exhausted. This intensifying competition signals a potential global AI arms race, with China rapidly eroding America’s lead in this critical technology sector.