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The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% after its 18 June policy meeting, marking a fourth straight hold and matching market expectations. Updated quarterly projections show policymakers still anticipate two quarter-percentage-point reductions this year, which would lower the federal funds rate to about 3.9% by year-end. The so-called dot plot now points to just one 25-basis-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027, while the estimate of the longer-run neutral rate remains at 3.0%. Officials now expect the economy to grow 1.4% in 2025, down from the 1.7% forecast in March, and see headline PCE inflation ending the year at 3%, up from 2.7%. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5%. In their statement, policymakers said uncertainty about the economic outlook has “diminished but remains elevated,” citing the potential inflationary impact of recently imposed tariffs and other geopolitical risks. The unanimous decision keeps rates at the level set in December and underscores the Fed’s wait-and-see stance ahead of further data on growth and inflation. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to elaborate on the outlook at his press conference later Wednesday.